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Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics

Author

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  • Jeffrey R. Campbell

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Jonas D. M. Fisher

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper studies how idiosyncratic productivity risk impacts aggregate employment dynamics when there is a trade-off between workers' productivity and costs of job creation and destruction. In our analysis, increasing idiosyncratic risk induces a producer to move workers out of structured jobs that are costly to create and destroy and towards less-productive but more-flexible unstructured positions. This substitution leaves the producer's total employment more responsive to both idiosyncratic and aggregate disturbances. If all of an industry's producers respond to heightened idiosyncratic risk in this way, then industry-wide employment can respond more to a given aggregate shock. We apply this insight to connect differences between young and old manufacturing plants' aggregate employment dynamics with their corresponding differences in idiosyncratic variability. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 331-353, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:331-353
    DOI: 10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00057-7
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    Cited by:

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    4. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
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    7. Øivind A. Nilsen & Arvid Raknerud & Marina Rybalka & Terje Skjerpen, 2005. "Lumpy Investments, Factor Adjustments and Productivity," Discussion Papers 441, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Naomi N. Griffin & Kazuhiko Odaki, 2006. "Reallocation and Productivity Growth in Japan: Revisiting the Lost Decade of the 1990s: Working Paper 2006-02," Working Papers 17603, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Min Ouyang, 2006. "Plant Life Cycle and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Working Papers 050632, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    11. Young, Andrew T., 2005. "Reallocating labor to initiate changes in capital structures: Hayek revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 275-282, December.
    12. Eugénio Pinto, 2009. "Firms' relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and the dynamics of gross job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2005. "Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
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    16. Tang, Jenn-Hong, 2007. "Gross job flows and technology shocks in nondurable and durable goods sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 326-354, June.
    17. Summaira Malik & Ali Abbas & Malik Shahzad Shabbir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Real Effective Exchange Rate Nexus Among Asian Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5466-5479, June.
    18. Naomi N. Griffin, 2005. "Labor Adjustment, Productivity and Output Volatility: An Evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy: Working Paper 2005-10," Working Papers 17567, Congressional Budget Office.
    19. Pinto, Eugénio, 2011. "Firms' relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and the dynamics of gross job flows," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 111-119, January.
    20. Nilsen, Oivind A. & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2007. "Employment changes, the structure of adjustment costs, and plant size," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 577-598, April.
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    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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