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Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics

Author

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  • Jeffrey R. Campbell

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Jonas D. M. Fisher

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper studies how idiosyncratic productivity risk impacts aggregate employment dynamics when there is a trade-off between workers' productivity and costs of job creation and destruction. In our analysis, increasing idiosyncratic risk induces a producer to move workers out of structured jobs that are costly to create and destroy and towards less-productive but more-flexible unstructured positions. This substitution leaves the producer's total employment more responsive to both idiosyncratic and aggregate disturbances. If all of an industry's producers respond to heightened idiosyncratic risk in this way, then industry-wide employment can respond more to a given aggregate shock. We apply this insight to connect differences between young and old manufacturing plants' aggregate employment dynamics with their corresponding differences in idiosyncratic variability. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 331-353, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:331-353
    DOI: 10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00057-7
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00057-7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nilsen, Oivind A. & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2007. "Employment changes, the structure of adjustment costs, and plant size," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 577-598, April.
    2. Yukako Ono & Daniel Sullivan, 2013. "Manufacturing Plants' Use of Temporary Workers: An Analysis Using Census Microdata," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 419-443, April.
    3. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
    4. Min Ouyang, 2006. "Plant Life Cycle and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Working Papers 050632, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    5. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2005. "Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Carvalho, Vasco M & Grassi, Basile, 2015. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tang, Jenn-Hong, 2007. "Gross job flows and technology shocks in nondurable and durable goods sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 326-354, June.
    8. Griffin, Naomi N., 2010. "Labor adjustment, productivity and output volatility: An evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 28-49, March.
    9. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    10. Øivind A. Nilsen & Arvid Raknerud & Marina Rybalka & Terje Skjerpen, 2005. "Lumpy Investments, Factor Adjustments and Productivity," Discussion Papers 441, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Eugenio P. Pinto, 2009. "Firms' relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and the dynamics of gross job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Zvi Hercowitz & Jeffrey C. Campbell, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," 2005 Meeting Papers 120, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Young, Andrew T., 2005. "Reallocating labor to initiate changes in capital structures: Hayek revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 275-282, December.
    14. Naomi N. Griffin, 2005. "Labor Adjustment, Productivity and Output Volatility: An Evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy: Working Paper 2005-10," Working Papers 17567, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Pinto, Eugénio, 2011. "Firms' relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and the dynamics of gross job flows," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 111-119, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic Risk; Plant Life Cycle; Employment Dynamics; Adjustment Costs;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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