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Plant Life Cycle and Aggregate Employment Dynamics

  • Min Ouyang

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Past empirical studies have repeatedly found the link between plant life cycle and aggregate employment dynamics: cross-section aggregate employment dynamics differ significantly by plant age. Interestingly, the dynamics of plant-level productivity distribution also display a strong age pattern. This paper develops a model of plant life cycle with demand fluctuations, to capture both of these empirical regularities. We model plants to differ by vintage, and an idiosyncratic component that is not directly observable, but can be learned over time. We show that this model, developed to match the observed dynamics of plant-level productivity distribution, introduces two driving forces for job flows: learning and creative destruction. The resulting job flows can match, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the differences between young and old plants in their job-flow magnitude and cyclical responses observed in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

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File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2005-06/Ouyang-32.pdf
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Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 050632.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:050632
Contact details of provider: Postal: Irvine, CA 92697-3125
Phone: (949) 824-5788
Web page: http://www.economics.uci.edu/

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  17. Eric R Young, 2005. "Approximate Aggregation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 141, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier.
  19. J. Bradford Jensen & Robert H. McGuckin & Kevin Stiroh, 2000. "The Impact of Vintage and Survival on Productivity: Evidence from Cohorts of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Economics Program Working Papers 00-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
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