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Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand

  • James Bergin

    (Queen's University)

  • Dan Bernhardt

    (University of Illinois)

We study the dynamics of an industry subject to aggregate demand shocks where the productivity of a firm's technology evolves stochastically over time. Each period, each firm, given the aggregate demand shock, the productivity of its technology, and the distribution of technology productivities in the economy, (i) chooses whether to remain in the industry or to exit to sell its resources to an entrant; and (ii) an active firm chooses how much capital and labor to employ, and hence output to produce. To characterize the intertemporal evolution of the distribution of firms, we discuss in particular how exit decisions, aggregate output, profits and distributions of firm productivities vary, (a) across different demand realization paths; (b) along a demand history path, detailing the effects of continued good or bad market conditions; and (c) for different anticipated future market conditions. Sufficient conditions are provide for worse demand realizations to lead to increased exit of low-productivity firms and then to improved distributions of firms at all future dates and states. Finally, it is shown that a downturn in demand can raise welfare due to the impact on exit decisions.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1043.pdf
File Function: First version 2006
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1043.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1043
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Web page: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/
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  1. Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
  2. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, June.
  3. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521465618 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-10, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  5. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bergin, James & Bernhardt, Dan, 1992. "Anonymous sequential games with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 543-562.
  7. Mallika Ishwaran, 2000. "Industry Dynamics: Aggregate Uncertainty, Heterogeneity, and the Entry and Exit of Firms," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1135, Econometric Society.
  8. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
  9. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Levinsohn, J. & Petrin, A., 1999. "When Industries Become More Productive, Do Firms?: Investigating Productivity Dynamics," Working Papers 445, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  11. repec:att:wimass:8904 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Caballero, R.J. & Hammour, M.L., 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," Discussion Papers 1991_59, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  13. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  14. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "Plant Turnover and Gross Employment Flows in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 48-71, January.
  15. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 99-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  16. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
  17. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
  18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521633574 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Bergin, J & Bernhardt, D, 1995. "Anonymous Sequential Games: Existence and Characterization of Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 461-89, May.
  20. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 805-52, August.
  21. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Computational Appendix to Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Technical Appendices campbell98, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  22. Baldwin, John R. & Gorecki, Paul K., 1987. "Plant creation versus plant acquisition : The entry process in canadian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 27-41, March.
  23. Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "Competitive Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
  25. Marcus Asplund & Volker Nocke, 2003. "Firm Turnover in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  26. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  27. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653.
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