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Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand

Author

Listed:
  • James Bergin

    (Queen's University)

  • Dan Bernhardt

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an industry subject to aggregate demand shocks where the productivity of a firm's technology evolves stochastically over time. Each period, each firm, given the aggregate demand shock, the productivity of its technology, and the distribution of technology productivities in the economy, (i) chooses whether to remain in the industry or to exit to sell its resources to an entrant; and (ii) an active firm chooses how much capital and labor to employ, and hence output to produce. To characterize the intertemporal evolution of the distribution of firms, we discuss in particular how exit decisions, aggregate output, profits and distributions of firm productivities vary, (a) across different demand realization paths; (b) along a demand history path, detailing the effects of continued good or bad market conditions; and (c) for different anticipated future market conditions. Sufficient conditions are provide for worse demand realizations to lead to increased exit of low-productivity firms and then to improved distributions of firms at all future dates and states. Finally, it is shown that a downturn in demand can raise welfare due to the impact on exit decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bergin & Dan Bernhardt, 2006. "Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand," Working Papers 1043, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1043
    as

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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1043.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Duggan, 2011. "Noisy Stochastic Games," RCER Working Papers 562, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. John Duggan, 2012. "Noisy Stochastic Games," RCER Working Papers 570, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    3. Santanu Roy & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2004. "Investment, Externalities & Industry Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 144, Econometric Society.
    4. Maria José Gil-Moltó & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2012. "Industry Dynamics and Indeterminacy in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Occupational Choice," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/09, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Sep 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic heterogeneity; aggregate shocks; exit; thin markets; demand uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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