Investment, Externalities & Industry Dynamics
We provide an alternative theoretical explanation for a number of empirical regularities relating to the dynamics of industry structrure (product life cycle) and changes in size and age distribution of firms over time. We explain why entry may continue over a considerable period of time, why shake out of firms occur in mature industries and why exiting firms are likely to be younger and smaller in size than incumbents. Unlike the existing theoretical literature, this explanation is not based on uncertainty, structural non-stationarity or incomplete information. We consider an infinite horizon, complete information, deterministic competitive industry with continuum of firms and stationary market demand. Firms have perfect foresight, may enter or exit the industry at any point of time and active firms undertake investment which reduces their future cost of production. Investment by active firms also leads to the growth of an industry-wide capital that reduces production cost of all firms (externality). The marginal cost curves are upward sloping and firms incur a fixed cost of staying in the industry. While all entering firms earn zero intertemporal net profit, their instantaneous net profit is typically negative when they are young and strictly positive when they mature. Positive profits may persist in the long run. Equilibrium prices decline over time while the level of positive industry-wide externality increases with time.The equilibrium path makes firms indifferent between alternative entry and exit decisions. Their investment levels after entry reflects their length of stay & the nature of industry environment (prices, externalities) over their period of stay in the industry. Heterogeneity emerges out of deliberate choice. The industry stabilizes in the long run
|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 1993. "The shakeout," Economics Working Papers 33, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
- Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1980. "Industrial Structure and the Nature of Innovative Activity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 266-93, June.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991.
"Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation,"
NBER Working Papers
3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
"Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Lambson, V.E., 1989. "Industry Evolution With Sunk Costs And Uncertian Market Conditions," Working papers 8904, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988.
"The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants,"
1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
- Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653.
- James Bergin & Dan Bernhardt, 2006.
"Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand,"
1043, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Mariana Mazzucato & Paul A Geroski, 2001.
"Modelling the Dynamics of Industry Populations,"
Open Discussion Papers in Economics
37, The Open University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
- Saul Lach & Rafael Rob, 1995.
"R&D, investment and industry dynamics,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
95-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
- Emmanuel Petrakis & Santanu Roy, 1998.
"Cost Reducing Investment, Competition and Industry Dynamics,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
98-011/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Petrakis, Emmanuel & Roy, Santanu, 1999. "Cost-Reducing Investment, Competition, and Industry Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 381-401, May.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1988.
"Entry, Exit, And Diffusion With Learning By Doing,"
88-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
- Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994.
"The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G., 1993. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Working Papers 93-34, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "The Life-Cycle of a Competitive Industry," NBER Working Papers 4441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Spence, Michael, 1984. "Cost Reduction, Competition, and Industry Performance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-21, January.
- Ariel Pakes & Richard Ericson, 1989.
"Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
2893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
- Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.