A structural empirical model of firm growth, learning, and survival
In this paper we develop an empirical model of entrepreneurs' business continuation decisions, and we estimate its parameters using a new panel of monthly alcohol tax returns from bars in the state of Texas. In our data, entrepreneurial failure is frequent and predictable. In the first year of life, 20% of our sample's bars exit, and these tend to be smaller than average. In the model, an entrepreneur bases her business continuation decision on potentially noisy signals of her bar's future profits. The presence of noise implies that she should make her decision based on both current and past realizations of the signal. We observe for each bar its sales, which we assume, equals a noisy version of the entrepreneur's signal. That is, the entrepreneur's information about her bar is private. ; The entrepreneur's private information makes the estimation of our model challenging, because we cannot observe the inputs into her decision process. Nevertheless, we are able to recover from our observations the parameters characterizing the entrepreneur's learning process and the noise contaminating publicly available sales observations. The key to our analysis is to note that our ability to forecast the entrepreneur's decisions reveals the amount of noise contaminating publicly available sales observations. We infer that public and private information differ little if we can forecast entrepreneurs' business continuation decisions well. With this information, we can then determine whether the usefulness of past sales observations for forecasting future sales arises only from the noise contaminating public observations or if the observations imply the presence of additional noise contaminating entrepreneurs' observations. ; We estimate our model using observations from the first twelve months of life for approximately 300 Texas bars. We find that entrepreneurs observe the persistent component of profit without error. In this sense, their information is substantially superior to the public's.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/print_publication_order_form.cfm Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taber, Christopher R., 2000. "Semiparametric identification and heterogeneity in discrete choice dynamic programming models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 201-229, June.
- James A Schmitz & Thomas J Holmes, 1994.
"On The Turnover of Business Firms and Business Managers,"
92-6, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1995. "On the Turnover of Business Firms and Business Managers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1005-38, October.
- Thomas J. Holmes & James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1995. "On the turnover of business firms and business managers," Working Papers 545, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2005.
"Market Size Matters,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-25, 03.
- Jeffrey Campbell, 2000. "Market Size Matters," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1225, Econometric Society.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2003. "Market size matters," Working Paper Series WP-03-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2002. "Market Size Matters," NBER Working Papers 9113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
- Fishman, Arthur & Rob, Rafael, 2003. "Consumer inertia, firm growth and industry dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 24-38, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-03-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernie Flores)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.