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A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics

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  • Li, Shengyu

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of exporting to quantify how productivity and uncertain foreign demand separately influence firms' export participation. In this model, firms face uncertainty about their own foreign demand, and they update their beliefs based on individual export transactions according to Bayes' rule. I estimate the model using data on firm-level production and transaction-level exports to Germany in the Chinese ceramics and glass industry. The empirical results show substantial heterogeneity in productivity and demand belief. For experienced firms, productivity is the major driving force of export participation. In contrast, for potential entrants, demand learning plays a more important role. A counterfactual exercise suggests that trade cost reduction has a significant impact on stimulating the export participation of potential entrants. Importantly, more than half of the participation increase is attributed to firms' endogenous reaction to demand learning in the foreign market.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Shengyu, 2018. "A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-15.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.08.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcela Eslava & James Tybout & David Jinkins & C. Krizan & Jonathan Eaton, 2015. "A Search and Learning Model of Export Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1535, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Da Gao & Xinlin Mo & Ruochan Xiong & Zhiliang Huang, 2022. "Tax Policy and Total Factor Carbon Emission Efficiency: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Beverly Mendoza, 2022. "Experience and market signals in export entry decisions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 176-199, January.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Development Aid, Remittances Inflows and Wages in the Manufacturing Sector of Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213439, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Dongmin Kong & Mengxu Xiong, 2021. "Unintended consequences of tax incentives on export product quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 802-837, September.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
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    9. Jonathan Eaton & David Jinkins & James Tybout & Daniel Yi Xu, 2022. "Two-sided Search in International Markets," Working Papers 22-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand uncertainty; Bayesian learning; Productivity; Export participation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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