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Demand learning and firm dynamics:evidence from exporters

Author

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  • Vincent Vicard

    (Banque de France)

  • Vincent Rebeyrol

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Nicolas Berman

    (Graduate Institute of International and)

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms are predicted to update more their beliefs the younger they are. Guided by the model, we use exporter-level data to identify separately the idiosyncratic demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. The learning process appears stronger for younger firms and weaker in more uncertain environments. Further, accumulated knowledge decays during exit periods. The updating process generates a decline in growth rate with age conditional on size. Firm exit behavior is also consistent with the theory: the exit probability decreases with the firms’ beliefs and the demand shocks the firm faces, and demand shocks trigger more exit in younger cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Vicard & Vincent Rebeyrol & Nicolas Berman, 2016. "Demand learning and firm dynamics:evidence from exporters," 2016 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:517
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    4. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    5. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    6. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    7. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    8. Federico Esposito, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0833, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    9. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
    10. Andrea Ariu & Elena Biewen & Sven Blank & Guillaume Gaulier & María Jesus González & Philipp Meinen & Daniel Mirza & Cesar Martín & Patry Tello, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports: Micro evidence from Belgium, France, Germany and Spain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 564-589, February.
    11. Esposito, Federico, 2020. "Demand Risk and Diversification through International Trade," MPRA Paper 100865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    13. Pau Roldán & Sonia Gilbukh, 2018. "Firm dynamics and pricing under customer capital accumulation," Working Papers 1838, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Andrea Ariu & Florian Mayneris & Mathieu Parenti, 2016. "Providing Services to Boost Goods Exports: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Julian Hinz & Amrei Stammann & Joschka Wanner, 2020. "State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade," Papers 2004.12655, arXiv.org.
    16. Federico Esposito, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Diversification through Trade," Working Papers w201714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Tang, Heiwai, 2019. "Excessive entry and exit in export markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Olga A. Timoshenko & Erick Sager, 2017. "Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2017-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. W. Steingress, 2015. "Entry barriers to international trade: product versus firm fixed costs," Working papers 544, Banque de France.
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    23. Li, Shengyu, 2018. "A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-15.
    24. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei Luise & Wanner, Joschka, 2020. "Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behavior to countries under sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2160, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    25. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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