IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sequential Exporting

  • Facundo Albornoz
  • Hector Calvo-Pardo
  • Gregory Corcos
  • Emanuel Ornelas

Firms need to incur substantial sunk costs to break in foreign markets, yet many give up exporting shortly after their first experience, which typically involves very small sales. Conversely, other new exporters shoot up their foreign sales and expand to new destinations. We investigate a simple theoretical mechanism that can rationalize these patterns. A firm discovers its profitability as an exporter only after actually engaging in exporting. The profitability is positively correlated over time and across foreign destinations. Accordingly, once the firm learns how good it is as an exporter, it adjusts quantities and decides whether to exit and whether to serve new destinations. Thus, it is the possibility of profitable expansion at both the intensive and extensive margins what makes incurring the sunk costs to enter a single foreign market worthwhile despite the high failure rates. Using a census of Argentinean firm-level manufacturing exports from 2002 to 2007, we find empirical support for several implications of our proposed mechanism, indicating that the practice of "sequential exporting" is pervasive. Sequential exporting has broad but subtle implications for trade policy. For example, a reduction in trade barriers in a country has delayed entry effects in its own market, while also promoting entry in other markets. This trade externality poses challenges for the quantification of the effects of trade liberalization programs, while suggesting neglected but critical implications of international trade agreements.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0974.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0974.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0974
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Luca David Opromolla, 2009. "The Cross Sectional Dynamics of Heterogenous Trade Models," Working Papers w200924, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002. "Economic Development as Self Discovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 3356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Maggi, Giovanni & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2005. "A Political-Economy Theory of Trade Agreements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5321, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Luca David Opromolla, 2008. "A Theory of Entry and Exit into Exports Markets," Working Papers w200820, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Luis Araujo & Emanuel Ornelas, 2007. "Trust-Based Trade," CEP Discussion Papers dp0820, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Paola Conconi & André Sapir & Maurizio Zanardi, 2013. "The Internationalization Process of Firms: from Exports to FDI," Working Papers ECARES 2013/139596, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
  8. Araujo, Luis & Mion, Giordano & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Institutions and Export Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "The Margins of US Trade," CEP Discussion Papers dp0906, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Redding, Stephen J., 2010. "Theories of Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 7961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  12. Lawless, Martina, 2007. "Firm Export Dynamics and the Geography of Trade," MPRA Paper 10008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ping Lin & Kamal Saggi, 1999. "Incentives for Foreign Direct Investment under Imitation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1275-1298, November.
  14. Jan Johanson & Jan-Erik Vahlne, 1977. "The Internationalization Process of the Firm—A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 23-32, March.
  15. Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald & Berger, Stefan, 2008. "The Micro Dynamics of Exporting: Evidence from French Firms," MPRA Paper 12940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Jonathan L. Willis & Kim J. Ruhl, 2009. "New Exporter Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 111, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J Bradford & Redding, Stephen J. & Schott, Peter K., 2007. "Firms in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Aghion, P. & Bolton, P. & Harris, C. & Jullien, B., 1990. "Optimal Learning By Experimentation," DELTA Working Papers 90-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  19. Daniel X. Nguyen, 2010. "Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures," Discussion Papers 10-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  20. Aghion, Philippe, et al, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 621-54, July.
  21. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Kalina Manova, 2008. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Rubén Segura-Cayuela & Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2008. "Uncertainty and entry into export markets," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0811, Banco de Espa�a.
  24. Egger, Peter & Fahn, Matthias & Merlo, Valeria & Wamser, Georg, 2014. "On the genesis of multinational foreign affiliate networks," Munich Reprints in Economics 20554, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  25. Lawless, Martina, 2008. "Deconstructing Gravity: Trade Costs and Extensive and Intensive Margins," MPRA Paper 10230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  27. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, 09.
  28. Ana Cristina Molina, 2010. "Are Preferential Agreements Stepping Stones To Other Markets?," IHEID Working Papers 13-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  29. Hiau Looi Kee & Kala Krishna, 2008. "Firm-Level Heterogeneous Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from Bangladesh," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 457-62, May.
  30. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 03-10, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
  31. Lawless, Martina, 2011. "Marginal Distance: Does Export Experience Reduce Firm Trade Costs?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  32. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Thierry Mayer, . "The happy few: the internationalisation of European firms," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 12.
  34. Alejandro Artopoulos & Daniel Friel & Juan Carlos Hallak, 2010. "Challenges of Exporting Differentiated Products to Developed Countries: The Case of SME-Dominated Sectors in a Semi-Industrialized Country," Research Department Publications 4677, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  35. Krautheim, Sebastian, 2012. "Heterogeneous firms, exporter networks and the effect of distance on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 27-35.
  36. Andrew Bernard & J Bradford Jensen & Stephen Redding & Peter Schott, 2009. "The Margins of U.S. Trade (Long Version)," Working Papers 09-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  37. Facundo Albornoz & Hector Calvo-Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Sequential Exporting," CEP Discussion Papers dp0974, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  38. Ornelas, Emanuel & Turner, John L., 2008. "Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 225-241, January.
  39. Rauch, J E & Watson, Joel, 1999. "Starting Small in an Unfamiliar Environment," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4rp145hc, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  40. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
  41. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2010. "Export entrepreneurs : evidence from Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5407, The World Bank.
  42. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2003. "On the Duration of Trade," NBER Working Papers 9936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Payton, Lucy, 2010. "Export promotion agencies: Do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 257-265, March.
  44. James E. Rauch, 1996. "Networks versus Markets in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Wagner, Joachim, 2005. "Exports and Productivity : A survey of the evidence from firm level data," HWWA Discussion Papers 319, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  46. Sebastian Krautheim, 2007. "Gravity and Information: Heterogeneous Firms, Exporter Networks and the 'Distance Puzzle'," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/51, European University Institute.
  47. Svetlana Demidova & Hiau Looi Kee & Kala Krishna, 2006. "Do Trade Policy Differences Induce Sorting? Theory and Evidence from Bangladeshi Apparel Exporters," NBER Working Papers 12725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Monika Mrazova, 2009. "Trade negotiations when market access matters," Economics Series Working Papers 447, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  49. Costas Arkolakis, 2011. "A Unified Theory of Firm Selection and Growth," NBER Working Papers 17553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  51. Thomas Chaney, 2011. "The Network Structure of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 16753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Leonardo Iacovone & BeataS. Javorcik, 2010. "Multi-Product Exporters: Product Churning, Uncertainty and Export Discoveries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 481-499, 05.
  53. Josep M Vilarrubia & Rubén Segura-Cayuela, 2008. "Uncertainty and entry into export markets," 2008 Meeting Papers 661, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  54. Morales, Eduardo & Sheu, Gloria & Zahler, Andrés, 2011. "Gravity and extended gravity: estimating a structural model of export entry," MPRA Paper 30311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. repec:pse:psecon:2005-35 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Nguyen, Daniel X., 2012. "Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 336-344.
  57. Kent Eriksson & Jan Johanson & Anders Majkg�rd & D Deo Sharma, 1997. "Experimental Knowledge and Costs in the Internationalization Process," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(2), pages 337-360, June.
  58. Alejandro Artopoulos & Daniel Friel & Juan Carlos Hallak, 2011. "Lifting the Domestic Veil: The Challenges of Exporting Differentiated Goods Across the Development Divide," NBER Working Papers 16947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Hector Calvo-Pardo, 2009. "Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a Walrasian auctioneer," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 561-592, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.