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New exports from emerging markets: Do followers benefit from pioneers?

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  • Wagner, Rodrigo
  • Zahler, Andrés

Abstract

We study the micro dynamics of new exports from a country. The modern international trade workhorse models (e.g. Melitz, 2003) assume heterogeneous productivity and, implicitly, predict that the ex-post largest exporters in a new product would be the pioneers, since they can pay back exploration costs. However, using detailed data on the early dynamics of new exports in Chile (1990–2007) we show that, on average, pioneers export less than comparable followers in the same new product. Moreover, followers are 40% more likely to enter a product if a pioneer survives more than one year exporting. These facts are consistent with pioneer-to-follower spillovers, or at least with stories in which the cost of entering early is disproportionally higher for larger exporters. Otherwise they would enter first. Firms better at “exploration” could be worse at “exploitation” (scale-up) in a new export product. This phenomenon is scarce, though, since in most new products pioneers are not followed, even if they survive.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Rodrigo & Zahler, Andrés, 2015. "New exports from emerging markets: Do followers benefit from pioneers?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 203-223.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:114:y:2015:i:c:p:203-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.12.002
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    1. Wei, Shang-Jin & Wei, Ziru, 2014. "Assessing Market Failures in Export Pioneering Activities: A Structural Estimation Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 10187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Exporter dynamics database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6229, The World Bank.
    3. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    4. Hahn, Chin Hee, 2021. "How do Export Pioneers Emerge and How are They Related to Product Creators?," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 43(1), pages 1-27.
    5. Shibi He & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2018. "Domestic Spillovers and Foreign Networks in Exporting," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-005, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
    7. Lukaszuk, Piotr & Torun, David, 2022. "Harmonizing the Harmonized System," Economics Working Paper Series 2212, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    8. Goya, Daniel, 2014. "Política industrial: Qué es, por qué es necesaria, y su pasado, presente y futuro en Chile [Industrial policy: What is it, why it is necessary, and its past, present and future in Chile]," MPRA Paper 64881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Agglomeration Matters for Trade," 2013 Meeting Papers 85, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Ivus, Olena & Park, Walter, 2019. "Patent reforms and exporter behaviour: Firm-level evidence from developing countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 129-147.
    11. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2015. "The Experience of Survival: Determinants of Export Survival in Lao PDR," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 82-94.
    12. Qi, Jianhong & Zhang, Zhaoyong & Liu, Hui, 2018. "Credit constraints and firm market entry decision: Firm-level evidence from internationalizing Chinese multinationals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 272-285.
    13. Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2016. "Exporter behavior, country size and stage of development: Evidence from the exporter dynamics database," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 121-137.
    14. Tomasz Serwach, 2012. "Why Learning by Exporting May Not Be As Common As You Think and What It Means for Policy," International Journal of Management, Knowledge and Learning, International School for Social and Business Studies, Celje, Slovenia, vol. 1(2), pages 157-172.
    15. Chin Hee Hahn, & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2021. "Export Market Survival of Pioneers and Followers," Working Papers DP-2021-46, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    16. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    17. Carol Newman & John Rand & Finn Tarp & Nguyen Thi Tue Anh, 2017. "Exporting and Productivity: Learning from Vietnam," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-25.
    18. Artopoulos, Alejandro & Friel, Daniel & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2013. "Export emergence of differentiated goods from developing countries: Export pioneers and business practices in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 19-35.
    19. Boehe, Dirk Michael & Becerra, Manuel, 2022. "Market entry into new export markets: When are firms more likely to imitate their competitors’ market presence?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5).
    20. Wei, Shang-Jin & Wei, Ziru & Xu, Jianhuan, 2021. "On the market failure of “missing pioneers”," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Export diversification; Self-discovery; Heterogeneous entry costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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