IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR

Author

Listed:
  • Stirbat, Liviu
  • Record, Richard
  • Nghardsaysone, Konesawang

Abstract

This paper explores a rich dataset of monthly firm-level data on the population of exporters of Lao PDR from 2005 to 2010. The survival analysis uses a discrete-time logistic model based on firm-product-destination triplets while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. It looks in detail at the role played by two important and related determinants of survival: experience and networks. These are particularly relevant for developing countries, where relevant export experience in firms is likely to be limited and networks leveraging it all the more important. The analysis reveals the positive impact of having prior experience with the export product and destination, experience with importing, as well as using a developed neighboring country as launch platform. Networks are found to be most relevant when they are most specific -- the largest impact comes from province level aggregations of firms selling the same product in the same market during a particular month. A competing risks model was also investigated to discern the impact of these determinants on the likelihood of experiencing an upgrade to a superior product versus termination when a trade contract ends.

Suggested Citation

  • Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/01/02/000158349_20130102105101/Rendered/PDF/wps6301.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Araujo, Luis & Mion, Giordano & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2016. "Institutions and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 2-20.
    2. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    3. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard, 2007. "Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4302, The World Bank.
    4. Bosco Sabuhoro, Jean & Gervais, Yvan, 2004. "Factors Determining the Success or Failure of Canadian Establishments on Foreign Markets: A Survival Analysis Approach," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004220e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    5. Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Exporter dynamics database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6229, The World Bank.
    6. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited: Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Paper Series 829, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    8. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    9. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    10. Céline CARRERE & Vanessa STRAUSS-KAHN, 2012. "Exports Dynamics: Raising Developing Countries Exports Survival through Experience," Working Papers P35-A, FERDI.
    11. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Wagner, Rodrigo & Zahler, Andrés, 2015. "New exports from emerging markets: Do followers benefit from pioneers?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 203-223.
    13. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
    14. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
    15. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    16. Rauch, James E. & Watson, Joel, 2003. "Starting small in an unfamiliar environment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1021-1042, September.
    17. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2003. "On the Duration of Trade," NBER Working Papers 9936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
    19. Koenig, Pamina, 2009. "Agglomeration and the export decisions of French firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 186-195, November.
    20. Jhonatan Eaton & Marcela Eslava & Maurice Kugler & James Tybout, 2007. "Export Growth in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence," Borradores de Economia 446, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2011. "Exporting from a small landlocked economy : an assessment of firm-product-destination survival rates in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5695, The World Bank.
    22. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Is export promotion effective in developing countries? Firm-level evidence on the intensive and the extensive margins of exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 89-106, September.
    23. Persson, Maria, 2008. "Trade Facilitation and the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade," Working Papers 2008:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    24. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    25. World Bank, 2011. "Lao PDR - Investment Climate Assessment : Policies to Promote Growth in the Non-Resource Sectors," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2795, The World Bank.
    26. Jorge Tovar & Luis Roberto Martínez, 2011. "Diversification, Networks and the Survival of Exporting Firms," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 008733, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lord, Montague & Artuso, Fabio & Record, Richard & Clarke, Julian, 2014. "Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 66437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Diez, Federico J. & Mora, Jesse & Spearot, Alan C., 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lucas FERRERO & Carlos Matías HISGEN, 2014. "Determinants of exports intensity of industrial SMEs in Argentina," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    5. World Bank Group, 2014. "Lao PDR Investment Climate Assessment 2014 : Policy Uncertainty in the Midst of a Natural Resources Boom," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21506, The World Bank.
    6. Lord, Montague J., 2013. "Lao PDR Market Access Guide: Trading with ASEAN Dialogue Partners – People’s Republic of China," MPRA Paper 61076, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.