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Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR

Author

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  • Stirbat, Liviu
  • Record, Richard
  • Nghardsaysone, Konesawang

Abstract

This paper explores a rich dataset of monthly firm-level data on the population of exporters of Lao PDR from 2005 to 2010. The survival analysis uses a discrete-time logistic model based on firm-product-destination triplets while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. It looks in detail at the role played by two important and related determinants of survival: experience and networks. These are particularly relevant for developing countries, where relevant export experience in firms is likely to be limited and networks leveraging it all the more important. The analysis reveals the positive impact of having prior experience with the export product and destination, experience with importing, as well as using a developed neighboring country as launch platform. Networks are found to be most relevant when they are most specific -- the largest impact comes from province level aggregations of firms selling the same product in the same market during a particular month. A competing risks model was also investigated to discern the impact of these determinants on the likelihood of experiencing an upgrade to a superior product versus termination when a trade contract ends.

Suggested Citation

  • Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jesse Mora, 2023. "Export failure and its consequences: evidence from Colombian exporters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 697-755, August.
    3. Lord, Montague & Artuso, Fabio & Record, Richard & Clarke, Julian, 2014. "Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 66437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Laura D’Amato & Máximo Sangiácomo & Martín Tobal, 2020. "Export Survival and Foreign Financing," Working Papers 16, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lucas FERRERO & Carlos Matías HISGEN, 2014. "Determinants of exports intensity of industrial SMEs in Argentina," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    8. World Bank Group, 2014. "Lao PDR Investment Climate Assessment 2014 : Policy Uncertainty in the Midst of a Natural Resources Boom," World Bank Publications - Reports 21506, The World Bank Group.
    9. Lord, Montague, 2013. "Lao PDR Market Access Guide: Trading with ASEAN Dialogue Partners – People’s Republic of China," MPRA Paper 61076, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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