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Ins, outs, and the duration of trade

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  • Tibor Besedeš
  • Thomas J. Prusa

Abstract

. We employ survival analysis to study the duration of U.S. imports. Our findings indicate international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. The median duration of exporting a product to the U.S. is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence. If a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation. JEL classification: F14, F19, C14, C41 Entrées, sorties et la durée du commerce. Les auteurs emploient une analyse de survie pour étudier la durée des importations aux Etats‐Unis. On découvre que le commerce international est beaucoup plus dynamique qu’on le pensait. La durée médiane de l’exportation d’un produit aux Etats‐Unis est très courte – de l’ordre de deux à quatre ans. Il y a une dépendance négative de la durée. Si un pays est capable de survivre dans le marché d’exportation pour les quelques premières années, il fera face à une plus faible probabilité de faillite et va exporter le produit en toutes probabilités pendant une longue période. Ces résultats sont confirmés transversalement pour des ensembles de pays et d’industries et sont robustes quand on utilise des données agrégées.

Suggested Citation

  • Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:266-295
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00347.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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