IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fubsbe/200817.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Die another day: duration in German import trade

Author

Listed:
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

International trade patterns at the product level are surprisingly dynamic. The majority of trade relationships exist for just a few, often only one to three, years. In this paper, I examine empirically the duration in German import trade at the 8-digit product level from 1995 to 2005. I find that survival probabilities are affected by exporter characteristics, product type and market structure. Specifically, I show that the duration of exporting a product to Germany is longer for products obtained from countries that are economically large and geographically close to Germany; for products with large trade value and a low elasticity of substitution; and for trade pairs that command a large share of the German import market and are characterized by two-way trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Discussion Papers 2008/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200817
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28084/1/590616803.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    2. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    3. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    5. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    6. Richard Baldwin & James Harrigan, 2011. "Zeros, Quality, and Space: Trade Theory and Trade Evidence," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 60-88, May.
    7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358-392.
    8. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    9. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    10. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    11. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
    12. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    13. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Sticky Borders," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 531-575.
    14. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    15. Egan, Mary Lou & Mody, Ashoka, 1992. "Buyer-seller links in export development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 321-334, March.
    16. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    17. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    18. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Putting Things In Order: Trade Dynamics And Product Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 369-382, August.
    19. James E. Rauch, 2001. "Business and Social Networks in International Trade," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1177-1203, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    3. Zou, Zongsen & Zhang, Yu & Li, Xin & Wang, Xiuling, 2023. "The nexus between product sophistication and export survival: Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 480-502.
    4. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    5. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    6. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    7. Imre Fertő & Zoltán Bakucs & Jan Fałkowski, 2021. "Dairy sector trade dynamics: Some insights on the evolution of trade linkages within the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 698-711, September.
    8. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2009. "Survival and Death in International Trade - Discrete-Time Durations of EU Imports," Working Papers 2009:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    9. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575005, HAL.
    10. Raphael A. Auer, 2013. "Product Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias," Working Papers 13.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    11. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2014. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 17, pages 347-372, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Raphael Auer, 2009. "Product Heterogeneity, Within-Industry Trade Patterns, and the Home Bias of Consumption?," Working Papers 09.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    13. Chin‐Ho Lin, 2020. "Impact of tariff rates on the probability of trade relationship survival: Evidence from ASEAN+6 manufactured goods," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, October.
    14. Eddy Bekkers, 2011. "Heterogeneous Popularity and Exporting Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 797-824, November.
    15. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2013. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international production sharing," Working Papers 13-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    16. Jaimovich, Esteban, 2012. "Import diversification along the growth path," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 306-310.
    17. Balazs Murakozy & Gabor Bekes, 2009. "Temporary Trade," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0909, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    18. Békés, Gábor & Muraközy, Balázs, 2012. "Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 232-246.
    19. Bastos, Paulo & Silva, Joana, 2010. "Identifying vertically differentiated products," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 32-34, January.
    20. Fertö, I., 2017. "Economic Crisis And the Fragility of World Wine Export," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survival; product; relationship; pattern;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200817. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwfubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.