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Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters

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Abstract

This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms are predicted to update more their beliefs to a given demand shock, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model together with exporter-level data to identify idiosyncratic demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. Consistent with the theory, we also find that the learning process is weaker in more uncertain environments.

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  • Nicolas Berman & Vincent Rebeyrol & Vincent Vicard, 2018. "Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters," AMSE Working Papers 1846, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1846
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    Cited by:

    1. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    2. Andrea Ariu & Elena Biewen & Sven Blank & Guillaume Gaulier & María Jesus González & Philipp Meinen & Daniel Mirza & Cesar Martín & Patry Tello, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports: Micro evidence from Belgium, France, Germany and Spain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 564-589, February.
    3. Doireann Fitzgerald & Stephanie Haller & Yaniv Yedid-Levi, 2016. "How Exporters Grow," Staff Report 524, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. W. Steingress, 2015. "Entry barriers to international trade: product versus firm fixed costs," Working papers 544, Banque de France.
    5. Pau Roldán & Sonia Gilbukh, 2018. "Firm dynamics and pricing under customer capital accumulation," Working Papers 1838, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    6. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
    7. E. Dhyne & C. Duprez & C. Fuss, 2015. "Main CompNet research results," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 103-116, December.
    8. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Tang, Heiwai, 2019. "Excessive entry and exit in export markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    10. Federico Esposito, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Diversification through Trade," Working Papers w201714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Walter Steingress, 2019. "Market size and entry in international trade: Product versus firm fixed costs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1351-1370, November.
    12. CHEN Cheng & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2019. "Learning from Siblings within Multinational Firms," Discussion papers 19053, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2016. "Friendly fire - the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2059, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    15. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    16. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    17. Andrea Ariu & Florian Mayneris & Mathieu Parenti, 2016. "Providing Services to Boost Goods Exports: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Olga A. Timoshenko & Erick Sager, 2017. "Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2017-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm growth; belief updating; demand; exports; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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