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Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters

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  • Nicolas Berman

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Rebeyrol

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Vincent Vicard

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms' beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Vincent Rebeyrol & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters," Post-Print hal-02111159, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02111159
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00731
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02111159
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Demand; Firm growth; Belief updating; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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