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Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters

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  • Nicolas Berman

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Rebeyrol

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Vicard

    () (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms' beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Vincent Rebeyrol & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters," Post-Print hal-02111159, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02111159
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00731
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02111159
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 0. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    2. Yaniv Yedid-Levi & Stefanie Haller & Doireann Fitzgerald, 2016. "How Exporters Grow," 2016 Meeting Papers 499, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. E. Dhyne & C. Duprez & C. Fuss, 2015. "Main CompNet research results," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 103-116, December.
    4. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    5. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    6. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    7. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    8. Federico Esposito, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0833, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    9. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
    10. Andrea Ariu & Elena Biewen & Sven Blank & Guillaume Gaulier & María Jesus González & Philipp Meinen & Daniel Mirza & Cesar Martín & Patry Tello, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports: Micro evidence from Belgium, France, Germany and Spain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 564-589, February.
    11. Esposito, Federico, 2020. "Demand Risk and Diversification through International Trade," MPRA Paper 100865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    13. Pau Roldán & Sonia Gilbukh, 2018. "Firm dynamics and pricing under customer capital accumulation," Working Papers 1838, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Andrea Ariu & Florian Mayneris & Mathieu Parenti, 2016. "Providing Services to Boost Goods Exports: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Julian Hinz & Amrei Stammann & Joschka Wanner, 2020. "State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade," Papers 2004.12655, arXiv.org.
    16. Federico Esposito, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Diversification through Trade," Working Papers w201714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Tang, Heiwai, 2019. "Excessive entry and exit in export markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Olga A. Timoshenko & Erick Sager, 2017. "Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2017-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. W. Steingress, 2015. "Entry barriers to international trade: product versus firm fixed costs," Working papers 544, Banque de France.
    20. CHEN Cheng & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2019. "Learning and Information Transmission within Multinational Corporations," Discussion papers 19053, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    21. Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2019. "Persistent zeros: The extensive margin of trade," Kiel Working Papers 2139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    22. Walter Steingress, 2019. "Market size and entry in international trade: Product versus firm fixed costs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1351-1370, November.
    23. Li, Shengyu, 2018. "A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-15.
    24. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei Luise & Wanner, Joschka, 2020. "Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behavior to countries under sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2160, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    25. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports; demand; firm growth; belief updating; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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