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Demand learning and firm dynamics: evidence from exporters

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  • Berman, Nicolas
  • Rebeyrol, Vincent
  • Vicard, Vincent

Abstract

This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms are predicted to update more their beliefs to a given demand shock, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model together with exporter-level data to identify idiosyncratic demand shocks and the firms' beliefs about future demand. Consistent with the theory, we also find that the learning process is weaker in more uncertain environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Berman, Nicolas & Rebeyrol, Vincent & Vicard, Vincent, 2017. "Demand learning and firm dynamics: evidence from exporters," TSE Working Papers 17-871, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:32281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    2. repec:spr:weltar:v:153:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10290-017-0286-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yaniv Yedid-Levi & Stefanie Haller & Doireann Fitzgerald, 2016. "How Exporters Grow," 2016 Meeting Papers 499, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. E. Dhyne & C. Duprez & C. Fuss, 2015. "Main CompNet research results," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 103-116, December.
    5. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    6. Olga A. Timoshenko & Erick Sager, "undated". "Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2017-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. W. Steingress, 2015. "Entry barriers to international trade: product versus firm fixed costs," Working papers 544, Banque de France.
    8. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
    9. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    10. Andrea Ariu & Elena Biewen & Sven Blank & Guillaume Gaulier & María Jesus González, & Philipp Meinen, & Daniel Mirza & Cesar Martín, & Patry Tello, 2017. "Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports : Micro evidence from Belgium, France, Germany and Spain," Working Paper Research 328, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2016. "Friendly fire - the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2059, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Andrea Ariu & Florian Mayneris & Mathieu Parenti, 2016. "Providing Services to Boost Goods Exports: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm growth; belief updating; demand; exports; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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