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Time to Ship during Financial Crises

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012

  • Nicolas Berman
  • José de Sousa
  • Philippe Martin
  • Thierry Mayer

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we found that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The form level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Francesco Giavazzi & Kenneth D. West, 2013. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number giav12-1, October.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12777.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12777
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    1. Fernando Leibovici & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "International Trade and Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 20498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    3. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working Paper Series 1245, European Central Bank.
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    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," Working Papers w200909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Helene Rey & Philippe Martin, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," 2005 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Martin, Julien, 2012. "Markups, quality, and transport costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 777-791.
    15. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    18. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    19. Julien Martin, 2009. "Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets," Working Papers 2009-21, CEPII research center.
    20. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
    21. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
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    23. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
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