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Time to Ship during Financial Crises

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  • Nicolas Berman
  • José de Sousa
  • Philippe Martin
  • Thierry Mayer

Abstract

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:intsma:doi:10.1086/669587
    DOI: 10.1086/669587
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    Cited by:

    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    2. Arnaud Mehl & Martin Schmitz & Cédric Tille, 2019. "Distance(s) and the Volatility of International Trade(s)," IHEID Working Papers 05-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 07 Sep 2020.
    3. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    4. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    5. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    6. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    7. Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2012. "Financing time to trade: Evidence from French firms," Post-Print halshs-00677343, HAL.
    8. Ferri, Giovanni & Minetti, Raoul & Murro, Pierluigi, 2019. "Credit Relationships in the great trade collapse. Micro evidence from Europe," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    9. A. Berthou & G. Horny & J-S. Mésonnier, 2018. "Dollar Funding and Firm-Level Exports," Working papers 666, Banque de France.
    10. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2019. "Contractual imperfections and the impact of crises on trade: Evidence from industry-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 33-49.
    11. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    12. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    13. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    14. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    15. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2013. "Are clusters more resilient in crises? Evidence from French exporters in 2008-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 9667, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Broll, Udo & Jauer, Julia, 2014. "How international trade is affected by the financial crisis: The gravity trade equation," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    17. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    18. Bouët, Antoine & Vaubourg, Anne-Gaël, 2016. "Financial constraints and international trade with endogenous mode of competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-194.
    19. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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