IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03584483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time to Ship during Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IHEID - Graduate Institute of International and Development studies)

  • José de Sousa

    (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Philippe Martin

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we found that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The form level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this ite
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03584483, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03584483
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03584483
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03584483/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    2. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    3. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    4. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    5. Feyrer, James, 2021. "Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Pol Antràs & C. Fritz Foley, 2015. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 853-901.
    7. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "A simple feasible procedure to fit models with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(4), pages 628-649, December.
    8. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    9. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    12. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
    14. Michael Waugh & Fernando Leibovici, 2010. "Cyclical Fluctuations in International Trade Volumes," 2010 Meeting Papers 1095, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    17. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: the Case of Trade," SciencePo Working papers hal-03461159, HAL.
    18. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    19. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    20. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    21. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    22. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    23. Julien Martin, 2009. "Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets," Working Papers 2009-21, CEPII research center.
    24. Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci, 2004. "Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises," IMF Working Papers 2004/225, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    26. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    27. George Alessandria & Joseph P Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09: An Inventory Adjustment?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 254-294, December.
    28. Martin, Julien, 2012. "Markups, quality, and transport costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 777-791.
    29. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i5ast4viool3gqa is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    33. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    34. Guimaraes, Paulo & Portugal, Pedro, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 3935, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    35. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
    36. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    37. Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Petia Topalova & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2011. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Working Papers 2011/003, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    39. Mr. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 2011/262, International Monetary Fund.
    40. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/58gkob9fur9g692gbiqnqb3mdj is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    5. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    6. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i5ast4viool3gqa is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    9. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    12. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    15. Silvio Contessi & Francesca De Nicola, 2012. "What do we know about the relationship between access to finance and international trade?," Working Papers 2012-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Berthou, Antoine & Horny, Guillaume & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2022. "The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Eppinger, Peter & Smolka, Marcel, 2015. "Firm Exports, Foreign Ownership, and the Global Financial Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113039, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
    19. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, 2020. "How do banking crises affect bilateral exports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1431-1459, March.
    20. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    21. Pol Antràs & C. Fritz Foley, 2015. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 853-901.
    22. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    23. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2019. "Contractual imperfections and the impact of crises on trade: Evidence from industry-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 33-49.
    24. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2014. "The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 397-414.
    25. Manova, Kalina & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "How firms export: Processing vs. ordinary trade with financial frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-137.
    26. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03584483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.