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Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a Walrasian auctioneer

  • Hector Calvo-Pardo

    ()

We examine whether the "fear" of globalisation can be rationalised by economic theory. To do so, we depart from the standard AD/AS (partial) equilibrium model where the coordinational role of the Auctioneer is substituted by an implementation device based on learning (Guesnerie, 1992). By endowing producers with a learning ability to forecast market prices, individual profit-maximizing production decisions become interdependent in a strategic sense (strategic substitutes). Performing basic comparative statics exercises, we show that "competitiveness" matters in a precise sense: as foreign producers gain access to the home market, home producers' ability to forecast market prices is undermined, so being their ability to forecast the profit consequences of their production decisions. When performing a standard open economy exercise in such a framework, we show that the existence of standard efficiency gains - due to the increase in competition (or spatial price stabilization) - is traded-off against coordination upon the welfare enhancing free-trade equilibrium (stabilizing price expectations). Therefore, we identify a new rationale for an exogenous price intervention in open economy targeting coordination, to allow trading countries to fully reap the benefits from trade. We illustrate this point showing that classical measures evaluating ex-ante the desirability of economic integration (net welfare gains) do not always advice integration between two expectationally stable economies.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 561-592

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:561-592
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  1. Guesnerie, R., 1989. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational Expectations Hypotbesis," DELTA Working Papers 89-24, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  2. Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa & Chin-Chiu Tan, Tommy, 1987. "The Bayesian Foundations of Solution Concepts of Games," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 111, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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  4. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration," Working Papers 514, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
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  6. Xavier Vives, 2001. "Oligopoly Pricing: Old Ideas and New Tools," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026272040x, June.
  7. Bourguignon, Francois & Coyle, Diane & Fernàndez, Raquel & Giavazzi, Francesco & Marin, Dalia & O’Rourke, Kevin & Portes, Richard & Seabright, Paul & Venables, Anthony & Verdier, Thierry & Winters, L., . "Making Sense of Globalization: A Guide to the Economic Issues," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 20240.
  8. Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2005. "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738, June.
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  12. Roger Guesnerie & Hector Calvo Pardo, 2004. "Eductive stability in sequential exchange economies: an introduction," DELTA Working Papers 2004-24, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  13. Dixit, Avinash & Norman, Victor, 1986. "Gains from trade without lump-sum compensation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 111-122, August.
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  16. Krugman, Paul R, 1987. "Is Free Trade Passe?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 131-44, Fall.
  17. Beth Allen & Jayasri Dutta & Haraklis M. Polemarchakis, 1994. "Equilibrium selections," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Novshek, William, 1980. "Cournot Equilibrium with Free Entry," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 473-86, April.
  19. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November.
  20. Dani Rodrik, 1997. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 57.
  21. Grandmont, J. M. & McFadden, D., 1972. "A technical note on classical gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 109-125, May.
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