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Assessing Rational Expectations 2: "Eductive" Stability in Economics

Author

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  • Roger Guesnerie

    () (Collège de France)

Abstract

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Guesnerie, 2005. "Assessing Rational Expectations 2: "Eductive" Stability in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072580, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtp:titles:0262072580
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Miguel A Savastano & Paul R Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    2. Ben-Porath, Elchanan & Heifetz, Aviad, 2011. "Common knowledge of rationality and market clearing in economies with asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2608-2626.
    3. Gaetano Gaballo, 2008. "Interactive Learning and Behavioral Sunspots," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 1008, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    4. Gaballo, G., 2012. "Private Uncertainty and Multiplicity," Working papers 387, Banque de France.
    5. Elliot Aurissergues, 2017. "Are consistent expectations better than rational expectations ?," Working Papers hal-01558223, HAL.
    6. Rainer Masera, 2014. "CRR/CRD IV: the trees and the forest," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(271), pages 381-422.
    7. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    8. Maik Heinemann, 2007. "E–stability and stability of adaptive learning in models with asymmetric information," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    9. Ghosal, Sayantan, 2006. "Intertemporal coordination in two-period markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 11-35, December.
    10. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2015. "Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments," Working Paper Series 29, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, May.
    12. Roman Frydman & Edmund S. Phelps, 2013. "Which Way Forward for Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis?," Introductory Chapters,in: Roman Frydman & Edmund S. Phelps (ed.), Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics Princeton University Press.
    13. Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg, 2015. "Change and Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory: A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Working Papers Series 8, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    14. Massimo Cingolani, 2008. "Full Employment as a Possible Objective for EU Policy I. A Perspective From the Point of View of The Monetary Circuit," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(1), pages 89-114, March.
    15. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "Revisiting Information Aggregation in Asset Markets: Reflective Learning & Market Efficiency," Working Papers 15-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    16. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    18. G. Gaballo, 2014. "Sequential Coordination, Higher-Order Belief Dynamics and E-Stability Principle," Working papers 509, Banque de France.
    19. Massimo Cingolani, 2010. "PPP Financing in the Road Sector: A Disequilibrium Analysis Based on the Monetary Circuit," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(3), pages 513-550, September.
    20. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2014. "Sequential coordination, higher-order belief dynamics and the E-stability principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-279.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    eductive stability; rational expectations; market models;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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