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International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Fontanelli
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We build a simple international trade model to study how the interaction between imperfect market selection and technological learning jointly shapes trade patterns as well as firm and industry dynamics. The model features two countries populated by firms heterogeneous in their productivity and size. Market selection is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process, while a geometric random walk characterizes the idiosyncratic cumulative firm learning process. We show that the model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics as well as realistic dynamics of export and productivity leadership at the country level. A series of sensitivity exercises on the degree of trade openness and the tightness of the market selection process allow us to draw interesting policy insights on concentration, volatility and the dynamics of international leadership in both export shares and aggregate productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Fontanelli & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Post-Print hal-04531047, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04531047
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104619
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    2. Joseph Hickey, 2023. "Simple model of market share dynamics based on clients' firm-switching decisions," Papers 2304.08727, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    3. Hickey, Joseph, 2024. "Simple model of market share dynamics based on clients’ firm-switching decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 635(C).
    4. Leonardo Ciambezi & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Accounting for the Multiple Sources of Inflation: an Agent-Based Model Investigation," LEM Papers Series 2024/15, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Leonardo Ciambezi & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2023. "Rethinking Inflation in an Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model," GREDEG Working Papers 2023-14, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

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    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1p3k1810c89k3b4gg6n2nuc0m4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Sébastien Lechevalier & Angelo Secchi, 2010. "Interfirm heterogeneity: nature, sources and consequences for industrial dynamics. An introduction," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00642680, HAL.
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    12. Marco Grazzi, 2009. "Trade and Profitability: Is there an export premium? Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms," LEM Papers Series 2009/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    14. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
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    16. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    18. Li, Shengyu, 2018. "A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Daniele Moschella & Emanuele Pugliese & Federico Tamagni, 2015. "Productivity, market selection, and corporate growth: comparative evidence across US and Europe," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 643-672, October.
    20. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    21. Crinò, Rosario & Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Gancia, Gino, 2021. "International Trade with Heterogeneous Firms: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    23. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    24. Giovanni Dosi & Emanuele Pugliese & Pietro Santoleri, 2017. "Growth and survival of the `fitter'? Evidence from US new-born firms," LEM Papers Series 2017/06, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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