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Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Tania Treibich

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa], Maastricht University [Maastricht])

Abstract

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (Econometrica 79:733–772, 2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on "supply granularity", as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a "demand granularity", based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the "Schumpeter meeting Keynes" family Dosi et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 52:166–189, 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2019. "Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-02557845, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-02557845
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-018-0590-4
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-02557845v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Citera, Emanuele & Gouri Suresh, Shyam & Setterfield, Mark, 2023. "The network origins of aggregate fluctuations: A demand-side approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 111-123.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    3. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2025. "Does the supply network shape the firm size distribution? The Japanese case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Summaira Malik & Ali Abbas & Malik Shahzad Shabbir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Real Effective Exchange Rate Nexus Among Asian Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5466-5479, June.
    5. Leon Esquierro & Sergio Da Silva, 2024. "Is the Brazilian labor market granular?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(2), pages 576-585.
    6. Adriano Maia & Guilherme De Oliveira & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2023. "Granular banks and corporate investment," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 586-599, September.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2022. "The determinants of aggregate fluctuations: The role of firm‐borrowing channels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(1), pages 20-34, January.
    8. Leon Esquierro & Sergio Da Silva, 2024. "Granular Cities," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-34, July.
    9. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    10. Ichiro Takahashi & Isamu Okada, 2020. "An artificial Wicksell–Keynes economy integrating short-run business cycle and long-term cumulative trend," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 953-998, October.
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Jannati, Sima & Korniotis, George & Kumar, Alok, 2020. "Big fish in a small pond: Locally dominant firms and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 219-240.
    13. Papa, Javier, 2019. "What is behind aggregate productivity growth in Ireland? A granular approach," MPRA Paper 116676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Schulz, Jan & Weber, Jan David, 2025. "Power laws in socio-economics," BERG Working Paper Series 203, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    15. Ichiro Takahashi, 2021. "An Artificial Wicksell—Keynes Macroeconomy," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-16-6839-5, January.
    16. Antoine Mandel & Vipin P. Veetil, 2025. "Do granular shocks generate sizeable aggregate volatility?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 71-94, January.
    17. Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 539-567, July.
    18. Pier-Paolo Saviotti & Andreas Pyka¤ & Bogang Jun, 2020. "Diversification, structural change, and economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1301-1335, November.
    19. Ichiro Takahashi, 2021. "Market Mechanism: Stabilizing or Destabilizing?," Springer Books, in: An Artificial Wicksell—Keynes Macroeconomy, chapter 0, pages 1-20, Springer.
    20. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    21. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Evolutionary Growth Theory," LEM Papers Series 2024/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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