IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joevec/v35y2025i1d10.1007_s00191-025-00887-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do granular shocks generate sizeable aggregate volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Mandel

    (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne. Maison des Sciences Économiques)

  • Vipin P. Veetil

    (Economics Area, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode)

Abstract

Over the last decade, numerous economists have argued that firm-level idiosyncratic productivity shocks can generate much of the observed aggregate volatility if firms are placed on a production network. We test this hypothesis using granular data on buyer–seller relationships between a large number of firms in the United States. Our estimates suggest that firm-level shocks generate about a tenth of the empirically observed aggregate volatility. Though the network mechanism is capable of amplifying firm-level shocks, the numerical values of the structural properties that generate this amplification do not prove to be sufficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Mandel & Vipin P. Veetil, 2025. "Do granular shocks generate sizeable aggregate volatility?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 71-94, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:35:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s00191-025-00887-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-025-00887-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-025-00887-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00191-025-00887-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2018. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2042-2096.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2019. "Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 67-90, March.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    4. Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Power Laws in Economics: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 185-206, Winter.
    5. Chen Yeh, 2017. "Are firm-level idiosyncratic shocks important for U.S. aggregate volatility?," Working Papers 17-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Y. Fujiwara & H. Aoyama, 2010. "Large-scale structure of a nation-wide production network," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 77(4), pages 565-580, October.
    7. Jorge Miranda‐Pinto & Yuanting Shen, 2019. "A Granular View of the Australian Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 95(311), pages 407-424, December.
    8. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov test: Accounting for the tails," Papers 1207.7308, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2012.
    9. Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Bacilieri, Andrea & Borsos, András, 2023. "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    11. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    12. Chaoming Song & Shlomo Havlin & Hernán A. Makse, 2005. "Self-similarity of complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 392-395, January.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1p3k1810c89k3b4gg6n2nuc0m4 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1p3k1810c89k3b4gg6n2nuc0m4 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Alan Kirman, 1997. "The economy as an evolving network," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 339-353.
    16. Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Vidal-Tomás, David & Alfarano, Simone, 2018. "On the determination of the granular size of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 35-38.
    17. Ernesto Pastén & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2024. "Sectoral Heterogeneity in Nominal Price Rigidity and the Origin of Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 318-352, April.
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2019. "Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes," Post-Print halshs-03505824, HAL.
    19. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jannati, Sima & Korniotis, George & Kumar, Alok, 2020. "Big fish in a small pond: Locally dominant firms and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 219-240.
    2. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    3. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    4. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Schulz, Jan & Weber, Jan David, 2025. "Power laws in socio-economics," BERG Working Paper Series 203, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    8. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    9. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    10. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    11. Ashish Kumar & Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Anirban Chakraborti & Tushar Nandi, 2020. "Distress propagation on production networks: Coarse-graining and modularity of linkages," Papers 2004.14485, arXiv.org.
    12. Kumar, Ashish & Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Chakraborti, Anirban & Nandi, Tushar, 2021. "Distress propagation on production networks: Coarse-graining and modularity of linkages," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 568(C).
    13. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.
    14. Corrado Di Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2020. "Does the Supply Network Shape the Firm Size Distribution? The Japanese Case," CAMA Working Papers 2020-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Adriano Maia & Guilherme De Oliveira & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2023. "Granular banks and corporate investment," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 586-599, September.
    17. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2023. "The granular nature of emerging market economies: The case of Kazakhstan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 429-464, April.
    19. Svetlana Popova, 2019. "Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps46, Bank of Russia.
    20. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    21. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production network; Productivity shocks; Aggregate volatility; Power law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:35:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s00191-025-00887-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.