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Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jaanika Merikull

  • UrÅ¡ka ÄŒede
  • Bogdan Chiriacescu
  • Peter Harasztosi
  • Tibor Lalinsky

Abstract

The literature shows that openness to trade improves longterm growth but also that it may increase exposure to high output volatility. In this vein, our paper investigates whether exporting and export diversification at the firm level have an effect on the output volatility of firms. We use large representative firm-level databases from Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia over the last boom-bust cycle in 2004–2012. The results confirm that exporting is related to higher volatility at the firm level. There is also evidence that this effect increased during the Great Recession due to the large negative shocks in export markets. In contrast to the literature and empirical findings for large or advanced countries we do not find a statistically significant and consistent mitigating effect from export diversification in the Central and Eastern European countries. In addition, exporting more products or serving more markets does not necessarily result in higher stability of firm sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaanika Merikull & UrÅ¡ka ÄŒede & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Peter Harasztosi & Tibor Lalinsky, 2016. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2016-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Jul 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2016-3
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    2. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Youngho Kang & Unjung Whang, 2023. "Exporting and sourcing strategies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1414-1441, September.
    4. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    5. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Qian, Ningyu & Shen, Yinjie (Victor), 2021. "The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Aid for trade and inflation: Exploring the trade openness, export product diversification and foreign direct investment channels," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 563-593, December.
    7. Minjung Kim, 2022. "Trade and employment volatility of firms during the global financial crisis and post-crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2091-2109, May.
    8. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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