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Predictive AI and productivity growth dynamics: evidence from French firms

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Fontanelli

    (University of Brescia, Department of Economics and Management, CMCC Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Mattia Guerini

    (University of Brescia, Deparment of Economics and Management and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Raffaele Miniaci

    (University of Brescia, Department of Economics and Management)

  • Angelo Secchi

    (PSE - University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CMCC - Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

Abstract

While artificial intelligence (AI) adoption holds the potential to enhance business operations through improved forecasting and automation, its relation with average productivity growth remain highly heterogeneous across firms. This paper shifts the focus and investigates the impact of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) on the volatility of firms' productivity growth rates. Using firm-level data from the 2019 French ICT survey, we provide robust evidence that AI use is associated with increased volatility. This relationship persists across multiple robustness checks, including analyses addressing causality concerns. To propose a possible mechanisms underlying this effect, we compare firms that purchase AI from external providers ("AI buyers") and those that develop AI in-house ("AI developers"). Our results show that heightened volatility is concentrated among AI buyers, whereas firms that develop AI internally experience no such effect. Finally, we find that AI-induced volatility among "AI buyers" is mitigated in firms with a higher share of ICT engineers and technicians, suggesting that AI's successful integration requires complementary human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Fontanelli & Mattia Guerini & Raffaele Miniaci & Angelo Secchi, 2025. "Predictive AI and productivity growth dynamics: evidence from French firms," Working Papers 2025.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.11
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    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; productivity growth volatility; coarsened exact matching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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