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AI Unboxed and Jobs: A Novel Measure and Firm-Level Evidence from Three Countries

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We unbox developments in artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate how exposure to these developments affect firm-level labour demand, using detailed register data from Denmark, Portugal and Sweden over two decades. Based on data on AI capabilities and occupational work content, We develop and validate a time-variant measure for occupational exposure to AI across subdomains of AI, including language modelling. According to our model, white collar occupations are most exposed to AI, and especially white collar work that entails relatively little social interaction. We illustrate its usefulness by applying it to near-universal data on firms and individuals from Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal, and estimating firm labour demand regressions. We find a positive (negative) association between AI exposure and labour demand for highskilled white (blue) collar work. Overall, there is an up-skilling effect, with the share of white-collar to blue collar workers increasing with AI exposure. Exposure to AI within the subdomains of image and language are positively (negatively) linked to demand for high-skilled white collar (blue collar) work, whereas other AI-areas are heterogeneously linked to groups of workers.

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  • Engberg, Erik & Görg, Holger & Lodefalk, Magnus & Javed, Farrukh & Längkvist, Martin & Monteiro, Natália & Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn & Pulito, Giuseppe & Schroeder, Sarah & Tang, Aili, 2023. "AI Unboxed and Jobs: A Novel Measure and Firm-Level Evidence from Three Countries," Working Papers 2023:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2023_013
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    2. Christina Gathmann & Felix Grimm & Erwin Winkler, 2024. "AI, Task Changes in Jobs, and Worker Reallocation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11585, CESifo.
    3. Nathalie Greenan & Dario Guarascio & Jelena Reljic, 2025. "AI and the labour market: opening the black box," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 925-951, December.
    4. Grenz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2026. "AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 18415, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Fontanelli, Luca & Calvino, Flavio & Criscuolo, Chiara & Nesta, Lionel & Verdolini, Elena, 2025. "Human after all: Occupations at the core of AI adoption," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Konstantinos Pouliakas & Giulia Santangelo & Paul Dupire, 2025. "Are artificial intelligence skills a reward or a gamble? Deconstructing the AI wage premium in Europe," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1091-1128, December.
    7. Florencia Jaccoud, 2025. "Robots & AI exposure and wage inequality: a within occupation approach," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1035-1090, December.
    8. Engberg, Erik & Koch, Michael & Lodefalk, Magnus & Schroeder, Sarah, 2025. "Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills, and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(8).
    9. Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim, 2025. "Digitalisierung in Österreich: Die Rolle der künstlichen Intelligenz am Arbeitsplatz," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(11), pages 605-617, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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