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The Employment Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina Prytkova

    (Côte d’Azur University and University of Sussex)

  • Fabien Petit

    (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL)

  • Deyu Li

    (Utrecht University)

  • Sugat Chaturvedi

    (Ahmedabad University)

  • Tommaso Ciarli

    (United Nations University,UNU-MERIT and University of Sussex, SPRU)

Abstract

This paper measures the exposure of industries and occupations to 40 digital technologies that emerged over the past decade and estimates their impact on European employment. Using a novel approach that leverages sentence transformers, we calculate exposure scores based on the semantic similarity between patents and ISCO-08/NACERev.2 classifications to construct an open–access database, `TechXposure'. By combining our data with a shift–share approach, we instrument the regional exposure to emerging digital technologies to estimate their employment impact across European regions. We find an overall positive effect of emerging digital technologies on employment, with a one-standard deviation increase in regional exposure leading to a 1.069 percentage point increase in the employment-to-population ratio. However, upon examining the individual effects of these technologies, we find that smart agriculture, the internet of things, industrial and mobile robots, digital advertising, mobile payment, electronic messaging, cloud storage, social network technologies, and machine learning negatively impact regional employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Prytkova & Fabien Petit & Deyu Li & Sugat Chaturvedi & Tommaso Ciarli, 2024. "The Employment Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-01, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:24-01
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    File URL: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp24-01.pdf
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    Keywords

    Occupation Exposure; Industry Exposure; Text as Data; Natural Language Processing; Sentence Transformers; Emerging Digital Technologies; Automation; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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