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How Exposed Are UK Jobs to Generative AI? Developing and Applying a Novel Task-Based Index

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Listed:
  • Golo Henseke
  • Rhys Davies
  • Alan Felstead
  • Duncan Gallie
  • Francis Green
  • Ying Zhou

Abstract

We draw on Eloundou et al. (2024) to develop the Generative AI Susceptibility Index (GAISI), a task-based measure of UK job exposure to large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT. GAISI is derived from probabilistic task ratings by LLMs and linked to worker-reported task data from the Skills and Employment Surveys. It reflects the share of job activities where an LLM or LLM-powered system can reduce task completion time by at least 25% beyond existing productivity tools. The index demonstrates high reliability, strong alignment with AI capabilities, and superior predictive power compared to existing exposure measures. By 2023-24, nearly all UK jobs exhibited some exposure, yet only a minority were heavily affected. Aggregate exposure has risen since 2017, primarily due to occupational shifts rather than changes in task profiles. The price premium for AI-exposed tasks declined relative to 2017, measuring approximately 12% lower in 2023-24. Job postings fell following the release of ChatGPT, with job postings 5.5% lower in 2025-Q2 than if pre-GPT hiring patterns had persisted. GAISI offers a robust framework for assessing AI's impact on work, providing early evidence that displacement effects may already outweigh productivity gains.

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  • Golo Henseke & Rhys Davies & Alan Felstead & Duncan Gallie & Francis Green & Ying Zhou, 2025. "How Exposed Are UK Jobs to Generative AI? Developing and Applying a Novel Task-Based Index," Papers 2507.22748, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.22748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ces:ceswps:_10955 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ekaterina Prytkova & Fabien Petit & Deyu Li & Sugat Chaturvedi & Tommaso Ciarli, 2024. "The Employment Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-01, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Golo Henseke & Alan Felstead & Duncan Gallie & Francis Green, 2025. "Degrees of demand: a task-based analysis of the British graduate labour market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 144-165.
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