How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry

Entrepreneurial, innovative entry can have devastating effects disrupting a market. However, the many players involved including all current producers, sellers and suppliers and the often non-technological but organizational nature of the innovation may lead to a gradual restoration of the market, viz., to a new equilibrium. Entrepreneurial entry can be regarded as a disaster while the restoration towards a new equilibrium as disaster management. Hardly any empirical models have been developed in order to test these ideas. This paper conducts the first empirical dynamic simultaneous equilibrium analysis of the role of entry and exit of firms, the number of firms in an industry, and profit levels in industry dynamics. Our model enables to discriminate between the entrants’ entrepreneurial function of creating disequilibrium and their conventional role of moving the industry to a new equilibrium. Using a rich data set of the retail industry, we find that indeed entrants perform an entrepreneurial function causing long periods of disequilibrium after which a new equilibrium is attained. Notably, shocks to the entry rate have permanent effects on the industry, emphasizing the entrepreneurial function of entrants rather than their passive reactive function as postulated in classical economics.