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What Are We Learning about the Long-Run?

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  • Granger, Clive W J

Abstract

An attempt is made to link together earlier definitions of the long run found in micro and macro economics with recent developments in econometrics, specifically cointegration. It is suggested that the links are not strong and that most of the previou s work in econometric theory has been unnecessarily overprecise. The possibility of embedding cointegration theory into a very general, nonlinear theory is suggested. An example uses a nonlinear relationship between U.K. short- and long-run interest rates proposed by Frank Paish (1966). Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Granger, Clive W J, 1993. "What Are We Learning about the Long-Run?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 307-317, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:103:y:1993:i:417:p:307-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Bernini Carri, 2005. "Productivity Growth and Convergence between Agriculture and Industry in EU Countries," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, November.
    2. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.
    3. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
    4. Fouquet, Roger, 1995. "The impact of VAT introduction on UK residential energy demand : An investigation using the cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 237-247, July.
    5. Martínez, José Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1997. "Caracterización de la tendencia y componente cíclico del PIB español a través de modelos no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3646, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    8. Geoff Harcourt, 2011. "On the Concept of Period and Run in Economic Theory," Discussion Papers 2011-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Dennis Fok & André Stel & Andrew Burke & Roy Thurik, 2019. "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1111-1138, December.
    10. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    11. Charles Perrings & David Stern, 2000. "Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 185-210, June.
    12. Martínez, J. Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1998. "La demanda de importaciones españolas. Un enfoque VECM desagregado," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3662, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Cushman, David O. & MacDonald, Ronald & Samborsky, Mark, 2001. "The law of one price for transitional Ukraine," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-256, November.
    14. Fok, D. & Paap, R. & Horváth, C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-047-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. Karim Maher Abadir, 2004. "Cointegration Theory, Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Economics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 60-71, January.
    16. Martínez, J. Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1998. "Caracterización del PIB español a partir de modelos univariantes no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3660, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.

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