Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana
Economists have recently begun to consider the questions raised by the ecological concept of resilience – a measure of the degree to which a system can be perturbed before it switches from one stability domain to another. At a theoretical level, it has been argued that the loss of resilience in an ecological-economic system involves a change in its long-run productive potential, but no consideration has yet been given to the empirical investigation of this. This paper discusses an econometric approach to the problem, using the example of semi-arid rangelands. The long-run productive potential of the system is regarded as an unobserved state variable, change in which is irreversible or at least only slowly reversible. It is estimated by applying the extended (nonlinear) Kalman filter. The paper illustrates the approach using data from Botswana for the period 1965–1993. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters associated with the loss of resilience mechanism are non-zero. They indicate a small loss of resilience event at the end of the long drought in the 1980s. However, these parameters are very imprecisely estimated and are therefore statistically insignificant. We find that the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks varies with fluctuations in both economic and non-economic parameters. Contrary to what is usually thought to be the case, the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks is only weakly affected by variations in offtake prices, but is very strongly affected by variations in the cost of herd maintenance. This suggests that offtake prices may be a weak tool for controlling the size of cattle stocks and preventing a loss of resilience. On the other hand, taxes on cattle stocks or grazing fees may be very effective. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:c/o EAERE Secretariat - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei - Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore 8, I-30124 Venice, Italy
Web page: http://www.eaere.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/environmental/journal/10640/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- White, Halbert, 1980. "Using Least Squares to Approximate Unknown Regression Functions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 149-70, February.
- Berndt, Ernst R & Khaled, Mohammed S, 1979. "Parametric Productivity Measurement and Choice among Flexible Functional Forms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1220-45, December.
- Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1993.
"What Are We Learning about the Long-Run?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 307-17, March.
- Abel, Nick, 1997. "Mis-measurement of the productivity and sustainability of African communal rangelands: a case study and some principles from Botswana," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 113-133, November.
- Perrings, Charles & Walker, Brian, 1997. "Biodiversity, resilience and the control of ecological-economic systems: the case of fire-driven rangelands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 73-83, July.
- Perrings,Charles & Maler,Karl-Goran & Folke,Carl & Holling,C. S. & Jansson,Bengt-Owe (ed.), 1995. "Biodiversity Loss," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471787, November.
- H Couclelis, 1988. "Of mice and men: what rodent populations can teach us about complex spatial dynamics," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 20(1), pages 99-109, January.
- H Couclelis, 1988. "Of Mice and Men: What Rodent Populations Can Teach Us about Complex Spatial Dynamics," Environment and Planning A, SAGE Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 99-109, January.
- D I Stern, 1992.
"Do regions exist? Implications of synergetics for regional geography,"
Environment and Planning A,
Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(10), pages 1431-1448, October.
- D I Stern, 1992. "Do Regions Exist? Implications of Synergetics for Regional Geography," Environment and Planning A, SAGE Publishing, vol. 24(10), pages 1431-1448, October.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The role of theory in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 61-79, May.
- Slade, Margaret E., 1989. "Modelling stochastic and cyclical components of technical change : An application of the Kalman filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 363-383, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:16:y:2000:i:2:p:185-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.