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Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification

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  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to modelling financial transmission effects. In simultaneous systems of stock returns, fundamental shocks are identified through heteroscedasticity. The size of contemporaneous spillovers is determined in the fashion of smooth transition regression by the innovations' variances and (negative) signs, both representing typical crisis-related magnitudes. Thereby, contagion describes higher inward transmission in times of foreign crisis, whereas vulnerability is defined as increased susceptibility to foreign shocks in times of domestic turmoil. The application to major American stock indices confirms US dominance and demonstrates that volatility and sign of the equity returns significantly govern spillover size.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 431, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:8573
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    File URL: https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/8573/1/Paper_Contagion.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Correlation vs. Causality in Stock Market Comovement," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    3. Skalin, Joakim, 1998. "Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression using a parametric bootstrap," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 276, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 1998.
    4. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
    5. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
    7. Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH," NCER Working Paper Series 22, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    8. Enzo Weber, 2010. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Vulnerability; Identification; Smooth Transition Regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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