IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/werepe/2886.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What are we learning about the long-run?

Author

Listed:
  • Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John)

Abstract

An attempt is made to link together earlier definitions of the long-run found in micro and macro economics with recent developments in econometrics; specifically cointegration. It is suggested that the links are not strong and that most of the previous work in econometric theory has been unnecessarily over-precise. Unit root processes can be replaced by processes that approximate them without loss of interpretation. The possibility of embedding cointegration theory into a very general non linear theory is suggested. An example uses a nonIinear relationship between UK short and long run interest rate proposed by Frank Paish.

Suggested Citation

  • Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John), 1992. "What are we learning about the long-run?," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2886, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/d42a5b80-9a42-4709-9ee5-77c8e583ff87/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koop, Gary, 1991. "Intertemporal Properties of Real Output: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 253-265, July.
    2. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Fok & André Stel & Andrew Burke & Roy Thurik, 2019. "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1111-1138, December.
    2. Fouquet, Roger, 1995. "The impact of VAT introduction on UK residential energy demand : An investigation using the cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 237-247, July.
    3. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    4. Carlo Bernini Carri, 2005. "Productivity Growth and Convergence between Agriculture and Industry in EU Countries," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, November.
    5. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    6. Fok, D. & Horváth, C. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Charles Perrings & David Stern, 2000. "Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 185-210, June.
    8. Martínez, J. Manuel, 1998. "La demanda de importaciones españolas. Un enfoque VECM desagregado," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3662, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Cushman, David O. & MacDonald, Ronald & Samborsky, Mark, 2001. "The law of one price for transitional Ukraine," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-256, November.
    10. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    11. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
    12. Karim Maher Abadir, 2004. "Cointegration Theory, Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Economics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 60-71, January.
    13. Geoff Harcourt, 2011. "On the Concept of Period and Run in Economic Theory," Discussion Papers 2011-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    14. Martínez, J. Manuel, 1998. "Caracterización del PIB español a partir de modelos univariantes no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3660, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Martínez, José Manuel, 1997. "Caracterización de la tendencia y componente cíclico del PIB español a través de modelos no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3646, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
    17. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-Fu Chen & Li-Hsueh Chen, 2007. "An empirical study of the asymmetric cointegration relationships among the Chinese stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1433-1445.
    2. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
    3. Hassler Uwe, 2001. "Wealth and Consumption. A Multicointegrated Model for the Unified Germany / Vermögen und Konsum. Ein multikointegriertes Modell für das vereinigte Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(1), pages 32-44, February.
    4. Massimo Franchi & Paolo Paruolo, 2021. "Cointegration, Root Functions and Minimal Bases," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, August.
    5. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2004:i:45:p:58-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Demiralp, Berna & Gantt, Bonnie B. & Selover, David D., 2011. "Modeling unemployment as an inventory: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 724-737.
    7. Paolo Paruolo & Rocco Mosconi, 2010. "Identification of cointegrating relations in I(2) vector autoregressive models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1007, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    8. Juan Carlos Vargas Berdugo, 2004. "Cuenta corriente y restricción presupuestaria intertemporal: un contraste de la viabilidad del financiamiento externo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 58-78, June.
    9. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Robert F. Engle et Clive W.J. Granger prix Nobel d'économie 2003," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(1), pages 1-15.
    11. Paul Mizen & Boris Hofmann, 2002. "Base rate pass-through: evidence from banks' and building societies' retail rates," Bank of England working papers 170, Bank of England.
    12. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    14. Koop, Gary & Ley, Eduardo & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 149-169.
    15. Jani Bekő, 2003. "Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 169-186.
    16. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
    17. Jean-Paul Azam & Catherine Bonjean, 1995. "La formation du prix du riz : théorie et application au cas d'Antananarivo (Madagascar) ," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(4), pages 1145-1166.
    18. Sylwester Bejger, 2019. "Wholesale fuel price adjustment in Poland: examination of competi-tive performance," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 18(4), pages 385-412, December.
    19. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
    20. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    21. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The long-run in microeconomics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eco.uc3m.es/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.