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A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Fok, D.
  • Paap, R.
  • Horváth, C.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

The authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate effects from the dynamic effects. In a second level of the model, the immediate price elasticities, the cumulative promotional price elasticity and the long-run regular price elasticity are correlated with various brand-speciffic and category-speciffic characteristics. The model is applied to seven years of data on weekly sales of 100 different brands in 25 product categories. We find many significant moderating effects on the elasticity of price promotions. Brands in categories that are characterized by high price differentiation and that constitute a lower share of budget are less sensitive to price discounts. Deep price discounts turn out to increase the immediate price sensitivity of customers. We also find significant effects for the cumulative elasticity. The immediate effect of a regular price change is often close to zero. The long-run effect of such a decrease usually amounts to an increase in sales. This is especially true in categories characterized by a large price dispersion, frequent price promotions and hedonic, non-perishable products.

Suggested Citation

  • Fok, D. & Paap, R. & Horváth, C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-047-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:6908
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    Cited by:

    1. Frison, Steffi & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Croux, Christophe & De Maeyer, Peter, 2014. "Billboard and cinema advertising: Missed opportunity or spoiled arms?," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 425-433.
    2. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Fok, D. & Stremersch, S., 2008. "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    3. KIYGI CALLI, Meltem & WEVERBERGH, Marcel & FRANSES, Philip Hans, 2008. "Modeling the effectiveness of hourly direct-response radio commercials," Working Papers 2008005, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Vroegrijk, Mark & Gijsbrechts, Els & Campo, Katia, 2016. "Battling for the Household's Category Buck: Can Economy Private Labels Defend Supermarkets Against the Hard-Discounter Threat?," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 300-318.
    5. van Heerde, H.J. & Helsen, K. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "Managing Product-Harm Crises," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-044-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Dawes, John G., 2012. "Brand-Pack Size Cannibalization Arising from Temporary Price Promotions," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 343-355.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hierarchical bayes; marketing mix; promotional and regular price; sales; short and long-term effects; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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