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Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices

  • BRYAN R. ROUTLEDGE
  • STANLEY E. ZIN

We characterize generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) risk preferences that can overweight lower-tail outcomes relative to expected utility. We show in an endowment economy that recursive utility with GDA risk preferences generates effective risk aversion that is countercyclical. This feature comes from endogenous variation in the probability of disappointment in the representative agent's intertemporal consumption-saving problem that underlies the asset pricing model. The variation in effective risk aversion produces a large equity premium and a risk-free rate that is procyclical and has low volatility in an economy with a simple autoregressive endowment-growth process. Copyright (c) 2010 the American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01571.x
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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 65 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1303-1332

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:65:y:2010:i:4:p:1303-1332
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  1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  2. Suleyman Basak & Alexander Shapiro, 1999. "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-032, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  3. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 1991. "The Independence Axiom and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The Implications of First-Order Risk Aversion for Asset Market Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 4624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nicholas BARBERIS & Ming HUANG & Tano SANTOS, 2000. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," FAME Research Paper Series rp16, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  6. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  7. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
  8. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
  9. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  11. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Stanley E. Zin, 1986. "Risk Premiums in the Term Structure : Evidence from Artificial Economies," Working Papers 665, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Nicholas Barberis, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, 08.
  14. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  15. repec:dgr:kubcen:199707 is not listed on IDEAS
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