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The Disposition Effect and Momentum

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  • Grinblatt, Mark

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Han, Bing

    (Ohio State U)

Abstract

The tendency of some investors to hold on to their losing stocks creates a spread between a stock's fundamental value and its equilibrium price, as well as price underreaction to information. Spread convergence, arising from the random evolution of fundamental values and updating of reference prices, generates predictable equilibrium prices that will be interpreted as possessing momentum. Cross-sectional empirical tests are consistent with the model. A variable proxying for aggregate unrealized capital gains appears to be the key variable that generates the profitability of a momentum strategy. Past returns have no predictability for the cross-section of returns once this variable is controlled for.

Suggested Citation

  • Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2003. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," Working Paper Series 2004-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2004-3
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    3. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    4. Wang, Daxue, 2008. "Are anomalies still anomalous? An examination of momentum strategies in four financial markets," IESE Research Papers D/775, IESE Business School.
    5. Newton Da Costa & Carlos Mineto & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Disposition effect and gender," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 411-416.
    6. Ellouz SIWAR, 2011. "The Impact Of Overconfidence Bias And Disposition Effect On The Volume Of Transaction And The Volatility Of The French Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 61-83.
    7. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    8. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    9. Desai, Mihir A. & Hines, James R. Jr., 2002. "Expectations and Expatriations: Tracing the Causes and Consequences of Corporate Inversions," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 409-440, September.
    10. Ranjeeta Sadhwani & Mujeeb U Rehman Bhayo, 2019. "Momentum and Disposition Effect in the stock market of USA," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 8911340, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Du, Ding, 2008. "The 52-week high and momentum investing in international stock indexes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 61-77, February.
    12. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    13. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
    14. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua Pollet, 2005. "Investor Inattention, Firm Reaction, and Friday Earnings Announcements," NBER Working Papers 11683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Seow Ong & Poh Neo & Yong Tu, 2008. "Foreclosure Sales: The Effects of Price Expectations, Volatility and Equity Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 265-287, April.
    16. Choi, Jaehyung, 2014. "Physical approach to price momentum and its application to momentum strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 61-72.
    17. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "Is the market held by institutional investors? The disposition effect revisited," Discussion Papers 338, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    18. Carsten Croonenbroeck & Roman Matkovskyy, 2014. "Demand for investment advice over time: the disposition effect revisited," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 235-240, February.
    19. Kaustia, Markku, 2004. "Market-wide impact of the disposition effect: evidence from IPO trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 207-235, February.
    20. Oehler, Andreas & Heilmann, Klaus & Lager, Volker & Oberlander, Michael, 2003. "Coexistence of disposition investors and momentum traders in stock markets: experimental evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 503-524, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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