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What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias J. Moskowitz

    (Graduate School of Business)

  • Mark Grinblatt

    (Finance Area)

Abstract

Multihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that also varies, somewhat sensibly, with the season and the tax environment. Accounting for these additional effects using a parsimonious technical trading rule generates surprisingly large abnormal returns, despite controlling for microstructure effects, transaction costs, and date-snooping biases. The documented variation in profits across stock characteristics, season, and tax environment appears inconsistent with existing theory, but may point to future explanations for the relation between past and expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm259, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm259
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    Cited by:

    1. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2004. "Tax-loss trading and wash sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 51-76, January.
    2. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
    3. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6qg5d62p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    4. Lucena, Pierre & Fugueiredo, Antonio Carlos, 2004. "Pressupostos de Eficiência de Mercado: um estudo empírico na Bovespa [Assumptions of Market Efficiency: an empirical analysis at Bovespa/Brazil]," MPRA Paper 40884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Miralles-Quiros, Maria del Mar & Miralles-Quiros, Jose Luis & Gonçalves, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Análise do efeito tamanho na Bovespa," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 57(4), August.
    6. A. Balakrishnan & Nirakar Barik, 2021. "Do select macroeconomic factors drive momentum returns?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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