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Trading Patterns, Bid-Ask Spreads and Estimated Security Returns: The Case of Common Stocks at Calendar Turning Points (Reprint 008)

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  • Donald B. Keim

Abstract

Returns computed with closing bid or ask prices that may not represent "true" prices imparts measurement error into portfolio returns if investor buying and selling behavior displays systematic patterns. This paper finds systematic tendencies for closing prices to be recorded at the bid in December and at the ask in early January. After controlling for changing bid and ask prices, this pattern results in large portfolio returns on the two trading days surrounding the end of the year, especially for low-price stocks. Other temporal return patterns (e.g., weekend and holiday effects) are also related to systematic trading patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald B. Keim, "undated". "Trading Patterns, Bid-Ask Spreads and Estimated Security Returns: The Case of Common Stocks at Calendar Turning Points (Reprint 008)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:22-89
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Steeley, James M., 2014. "Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 56-77.
    2. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 1996. "Dealer versus auction markets: A paired comparison of execution costs on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-357, July.
    3. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    4. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm259, Yale School of Management.
    5. repec:gam:jijfss:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:7:d:67720 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Meneu, Vicente & Pardo, Angel, 2004. "Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 231-246, March.
    7. Ng, Lilian & Wang, Qinghai, 2004. "Institutional trading and the turn-of-the-year effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 343-366, November.
    8. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2016. "The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European real estate sector," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 549-567, July.
    9. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    10. Jones, Charles M. & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L., 1994. "Information, trading, and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-154, August.
    11. Partha Gangopadhyay, 1994. "Risk-Return Seasonality And Macroeconomic Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 347-361, September.
    12. D'Mello, Ranjan & Ferris, Stephen P. & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 2003. "The tax-loss selling hypothesis, market liquidity, and price pressure around the turn-of-the-year," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 73-98, January.
    13. Lahav, Eyal & Shavit, Tal & Benzion, Uri, 2016. "Can't wait to celebrate: Holiday euphoria, impulsive behavior and time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 128-134.
    14. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2010. "Cross-cultural differences in seasonality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 306-312, September.
    15. Foong Soon Cheong, 2016. "Debunking Two Myths of the Weekend Effect," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-9, April.
    16. Joel L. Horowitz & Tim Loughran & N. E. Savin, 1996. "A Spline Analysis of the Small Firm Effect: Does Size Really Matter?," Econometrics 9608001, EconWPA.
    17. repec:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:133-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Griffiths, Mark D. & Turnbull, D. Alasdair S. & White, Robert W., 1999. "Re-examining the small-cap myth: problems in portfolio formation and liquidation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-221.
    19. Chalmers, John M. R. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 1998. "An empirical examination of the amortized spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 159-188, May.

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