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Long-term return reversals--Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

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  • Wu, Yuliang
  • Li, Youwei

Abstract

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors' incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2011. "Long-term return reversals--Value and growth or tax? UK evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 347-368, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:3:p:347-368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ye, Qing & Turner, John D., 2014. "The cross-section of stock returns in an early stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-123.
    2. Wu, Yuliang & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2016. "Long-term industry reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-250.
    3. Papanastasopoulos, Georgios & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2017. "Managerial discretion, net operating assets and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from European countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 188-210.
    4. Doukakis, Leonidas C. & Papanastasopoulos, Georgios A., 2014. "The accrual anomaly in the U.K. stock market: Implications of growth and accounting distortions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 256-277.

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