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What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?

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  • Mark Grinblatt
  • Tobias J. Moskowitz

Abstract

Multihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that also varies, somewhat sensibly, with the season and the tax environment. Accounting for these additional effects using a parsimonious technical trading rule generates surprisingly large abnormal returns, despite controlling for microstructure effects, transaction costs, and data-snooping biases. The documented variation in profits across stock characteristics, season, and tax environment appear inconsistent with existing theory, but may point to future explanations for the relation between past and expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8744
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
    3. Bing NMI1 Han & Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm239, Yale School of Management.
    4. Lucena, Pierre & Fugueiredo, Antonio Carlos, 2004. "Pressupostos de Eficiência de Mercado: um estudo empírico na Bovespa [Assumptions of Market Efficiency: an empirical analysis at Bovespa/Brazil]," MPRA Paper 40884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Miralles-Quiros, Maria del Mar & Miralles-Quiros, Jose Luis & Gonçalves, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Análise do efeito tamanho na Bovespa," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 57(4), August.
    6. A. Balakrishnan & Nirakar Barik, 2021. "Do select macroeconomic factors drive momentum returns?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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