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How do Markets React to Fundamental Shocks? An Experimental Analysis on Underreaction and Momentum

  • Weber, Martin


    (Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre)

  • Welfens, Frank


    (Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre)

We perform a market experiment to investigate how average transaction prices react to the arrival of new information. Following a positive shock in fundamental value, prices underreact strongly; following negative shocks we find evidence of a much less pronounced underreaction. After the shock, prices in both situations slowly drift towards the new fundamental value, leading to a characteristic momentum pattern. Controlling for investors’ individual disposition effects we form high and low disposition markets and prove both underreaction and momentum to be stronger in the high disposition group. While evidence is mainly in favor of Grinblatt and Han (2005), we conclude based on our underreaction finding that positive and negative shocks are not two sides of the same coin and encourage future studies to disentangle the asymmetry between the two situations more carefully.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 07-42.

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Length: 0 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-42
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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  1. Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2002. "Evaluation Periods and Assett Prices in a Market Experiment," Working Papers 02-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  2. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2003. "Disposition Matters: Volume, Volatility and Price Impact of a Behavioral Bias," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm333, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2005.
  3. Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Working Papers 463, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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  6. Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 331, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  7. Haigh, Michael S. & List, John A., 2002. "Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers 28554, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  8. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Thaler, Richard, 1980. "Toward a positive theory of consumer choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-60, March.
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    • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  12. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-54, October.
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