Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns
In this paper we propose a new GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model allowing for conditional skewness. The model is based on the so-called z distribution capable of modeling moderate skewness and kurtosis typically encountered in stock return series. The need to allow for skewness can also be readily tested. Our empirical results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in the postwar U.S. stock returns. Small positive news is also found to have a smaller impact on conditional variance than no news at all. Moreover, the symmetric GARCH-M model not allowing for conditional skewness is found to systematically overpredict conditional variance and average excess returns.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Badia Fiesolana, Via dei Roccettini, 9, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/ECO/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2005/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Banks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.