Time-varying risk aversion and international stock returns

We estimate aggregate, time-varying risk aversion inferred from options, stock returns and macroeconomic data for a panel of 8 countries. We document that, for most countries, the estimated risk aversion measure is counter-cyclical. Moreover, we show that estimated risk aversion forecasts monthly stock index returns up to 12 months ahead. This effect is statistically significant in panel regressions, and it survives the inclusion of additional control variables, such as an estimated of the variance risk premium, an investors’ sentiment index, and a measure of economic uncertainty. Finally, we show that risk aversion provides useful information to an investor who aims at timing the market. An investment strategy that uses the estimated time-varying risk aversion measure to solve a mean–variance asset allocation problem, delivers significantly positive returns.