IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v57y2011i8p1406-1423.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Generalized Measure of Riskiness

Author

Listed:
  • Turan G. Bali

    () (McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057)

  • Nusret Cakici

    () (Graduate School of Business, Fordham University, New York, New York 10023)

  • Fousseni Chabi-Yo

    () (Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210)

Abstract

This paper proposes a generalized measure of riskiness that nests the original measures pioneered by Aumann and Serrano (Aumann, R. J., R. Serrano. 2008. An economic index of riskiness. J. Political Econom. 116(5) 810-836) and Foster and Hart (Foster, D. P., S. Hart. 2009. An operational measure of riskiness. J. Political Econom. 117(5) 785-814). The paper introduces the generalized options' implied measure of riskiness based on the risk-neutral return distribution of financial securities. It also provides asset allocation implications and shows that the forward-looking measures of riskiness successfully predict the cross section of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month-ahead risk-adjusted returns of individual stocks. The empirical results indicate that the generalized measure of riskiness is able to rank equity portfolios based on their expected returns per unit of risk and hence yields a more efficient strategy for maximizing expected return of the portfolio while minimizing its risk. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2011. "A Generalized Measure of Riskiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1406-1423, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:8:p:1406-1423
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1373
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2008. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 810-836, October.
    2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    4. Diamond, Peter A. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1974. "Increases in risk and in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 337-360, July.
    5. G. Hanoch & H. Levy, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 335-346.
    6. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    7. Dean P. Foster & Sergiu Hart, 2009. "An Operational Measure of Riskiness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(5), pages 785-814.
    8. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(03), pages 641-662, June.
    9. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    11. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    13. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    14. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    15. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    16. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    18. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hellmann, Tobias & Riedel, Frank, 2015. "The Foster-Hart measure of riskiness for general gambles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), January.
    2. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2016. "International stock market cointegration under the risk-neutral measure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-255.
    3. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-13.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:129-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ehsani, Sina & Lien, Donald, 2015. "A note on minimum riskiness hedge ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 11-17.
    6. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Does Aggregate Riskiness Predict Future Economic Downturns?," Working Paper Series 2012-09, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    7. Kadan, Ohad & Liu, Fang, 2014. "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 131-155.
    8. Chamorro Elosua, Arritokieta & Usategui Díaz de Otalora, José María, 2013. "A Note on Risk Acceptance, Bankruptcy Avoidance and Riskiness Measures," DFAEII Working Papers DFAEII;2013-04, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    9. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    10. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Gustavo Silva Araujo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2015. "As Atuações Cambiais do Banco Central Afetam as Expectativas de Mercado?," Working Papers Series 393, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2015. "A new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market: Implications for the risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-117.
    13. Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2011. "CAPM-like formulae and good deal absence with ambiguous setting and coherent risk measure," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-11-04, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    14. Anand, Abhinav & Li, Tiantian & Kurosaki, Tetsuo & Kim, Young Shin, 2016. "Foster–Hart optimal portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 117-130.
    15. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H., 2015. "Option-implied objective measures of market risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65446, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Caio Almeida & Kym Ardison & René Garcia & Jose Vicente, 2017. "Nonparametric Tail Risk, Stock Returns, and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 15(3), pages 333-376.
    17. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2016. "Good deals and benchmarks in robust portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 666-678.
    18. Schulze, Klaas, 2014. "Existence and computation of the Aumann–Serrano index of riskiness and its extension," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 219-224.
    19. Gustavo Silva Araújo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2014. "Indicadores Antecedentes Extraídos de Preços de Ativos em Corte Transversal," Working Papers Series 361, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2016. "VaR as the CVaR sensitivity : applications in risk optimization," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-16-01, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    21. Chen, Yi-Ting & Ho, Keng-Yu & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2014. "Riskiness-minimizing spot-futures hedge ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 154-164.
    22. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2013. "On the inefficiency of Brownian motions and heavier tailed price processes," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-13-01, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:8:p:1406-1423. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.