On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective
Sample evidence about the predictability of monthly stock returns is considered from the perspective of a risk-averse Bayesian investor who must allocate funds between stocks and cash. The investor uses the sample evidence to update prior beliefs about the parameters in a regression of stock returns on a set of predictive variables. The regression relation can seem weak when described by usual statistical measures but the current values of the predictive variables can exert a substantial influence on the investor's portfolio decision, even when the investor's prior beliefs are weighted against predictability. Copyright 1996 by American Finance Association.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 51 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.afajof.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-78, July.
- Campbell, John, 1987.
"Stock Returns and the Term Structure,"
3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
- Black, Fischer, 1990. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 107-14.
- Foster, F Douglas & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E, 1997. " Assessing Goodness-of-Fit of Asset Pricing Models: The Distribution of the Maximal R-Squared," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 591-607, June.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991.
"Asset returns and intertemporal preferences,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
- Goetzmann, William N & Jorion, Philippe, 1995.
"A Longer Look at Dividend Yields,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 483-508, October.
- Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
- David Feldman, 1989. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 789-812, 07.
- Dothan, Michael U & Feldman, David, 1986. " Equilibrium Interest Rates and Multiperiod Bonds in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 369-82, June.
- Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-91, June.
- Frost, Peter A. & Savarino, James E., 1986. "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Efficient Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 293-305, September.
- Feldman, David, 1992. "Logarithmic Preferences, Myopic Decisions, and Incomplete Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 619-629, December.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:51:y:1996:i:2:p:385-424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.