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Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing

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  • Black, Fischer

Abstract

Most models of the evolution of wealth and consumption assume that wealth volatility and risk premium are constant. But in fact, volatility declines, and risk premium seems to decline, as wealth rises. A model that allows mean reversion in the sense that the risk premium declines as wealth rises can help explain both the "consumption smoothing puzzle" and the "equity premium puzzle." In an example of such a model that gives us an analytic solution, direct and derived risk aversion are both constant, but differ. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Black, Fischer, 1990. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 107-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:3:y:1990:i:1:p:107-14
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. " On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    2. Basak, Suleyman, 1999. "On the fluctuations in consumption and market returns in the presence of labor and human capital: An equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1029-1064, June.
    3. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    4. Douch, Mohamed, 2004. "Equity Premiums In Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 14613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Kim, Dongcheol & Wizman, Thierry A., 1996. "Asset pricing models with and without consumption data: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 267-301, September.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    7. Meyer, Donald J. & Meyer, Jack, 2005. "Risk preferences in multi-period consumption models, the equity premium puzzle, and habit formation utility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1497-1515, November.
    8. Liutang Gong & Yulei Luo & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "Social Status, the Spirit of Capitalism, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Stochastic Production Economies," CEMA Working Papers 372, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    9. Fang Zhou & Liutang Gong & Yaping Wang, 2008. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing: A Comment," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 397-399, November.
    10. Bruhn, Kenneth & Steffensen, Mogens, 2013. "Optimal smooth consumption and annuity design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2693-2701.
    11. Ogden, Joseph P., 2003. "The calendar structure of risk and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 29-67, October.
    12. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    13. Eric Hillebrand, 2005. "Mean Reversion Expectations and the 1987 Stock Market Crash: An Empirical Investigation," Finance 0501015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Danielsson, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp647, Financial Markets Group.
    15. Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2007. "Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 405-445, November.
    16. Fuerst, Michael E., 2006. "Investor risk premia and real macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 540-563, September.

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