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A Longer Look at Dividend Yields


  • Goetzmann, William N
  • Jorion, Philippe


This article reexamines the evidence on the ability of dividend yields to predict long-horizon stock returns. The authors use two new series beginning in 1871, a monthly series for the United States, and an annual series for the United Kingdom. Conditional on survival over the entire 122 years, dividend yields display only marginal ability to predict stock market returns in either country. The authors also argue that tests over long periods may be affected by survivorship. Simulations show that regression statistics based on a sample drawn solely from surviving markets can be seriously biased toward finding predictability. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Goetzmann, William N & Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "A Longer Look at Dividend Yields," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 483-508, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:4:p:483-508

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Clements, Kenneth W, 1981. "Changes in the Size of the Traded Goods Sector: Theory and Applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 203-213.
    2. Brown, Alan & Deaton, Angus S, 1972. "Surveys in Applied Economics: Models of Consumer Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1145-1236, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    2. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. " On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    3. Antje Henne & Sebastian Ostrowski & Peter Reichling, 2007. "Dividend Yield and Stability versus Performance at the German Stock Market," FEMM Working Papers 07017, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brealey, Richard A. & Kwan, Sabrina, 1999. "Personal taxes and the time variation of stock returns - evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(11), pages 1557-1577, November.
    6. Bhanot, Karan, 2005. "What causes mean reversion in corporate bond index spreads? The impact of survival," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1385-1403, June.
    7. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    8. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "A Century of Global Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 5901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
    10. JULES H. van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present-Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
    11. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Samih Antoine Azar, 2004. "Excess volatility in the US stock market: evidence to the contrary," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1307-1311.
    13. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    14. J. Annaert & W. Van Hyfte, 2006. "Long-Horizon Mean Reversion for the Brussels Stock Exchange: Evidence for the 19th Century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/376, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Lorenzo Camponovo & Olivier Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2016. "Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations," Papers 1612.05072,
    16. Greg Filbeck & Sue Visscher, 1997. "Dividend yield strategies in the British stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 277-289.
    17. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
    18. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Antje Henne & Sebastian Ostrowski & Peter Reichling, 2009. "Dividend yield and stability versus performance on the German stock market: a descriptive study," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-248, November.
    20. Goetzmann, Will & Le Bris, David & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "The Present Value Relation Over Six Centuries: The Case of the Bazacle Company," TSE Working Papers 17-794, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    21. Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General


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