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The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield

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  • Liu, Peng
  • Tang, Ke

Abstract

We document a new stylized fact regarding the dynamics of the commodity convenience yield: the volatility of the convenience yield is heteroskedastic for industrial commodities; specifically, the volatility (variance) of the convenience yield depends on the convenience yield level. To explore the economic and statistical significance of the improved specification of the convenience yield process, we propose an affine model with three state variables (log spot price, interest rate, and the convenience yield). Our model captures three important features of commodity futures--the heteroskedasticity of the convenience yield, the positive relationship between spot-price volatility and the convenience yield and the dependence of futures risk premium on the convenience yield. Moreover our model predicts an upward sloping implied volatility smile, commonly observed in commodity option market.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Peng & Tang, Ke, 2011. "The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 211-224, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:211-224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
    2. Sévi, Benoît, 2015. "Explaining the convenience yield in the WTI crude oil market using realized volatility and jumps," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 243-251.
    3. Fernanda Fuentes & Rodrigo Herrera & Adam Clements, 2016. "Modelling Extreme Risks in Commodities and Commodity Currencies," NCER Working Paper Series 115, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Berger, Theo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "On the dynamic dependence between equity markets, commodity futures and economic uncertainty indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 374-383.
    5. Almansour, Abdullah, 2016. "Convenience yield in commodity price modeling: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-247.
    6. Suenaga, Hiroaki, 2013. "Measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 53-66.
    7. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    8. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:182-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
    10. repec:kap:revdev:v:20:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-016-9126-y is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2014. "Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 289-295.
    12. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.
    13. Kearney, Fearghal & Murphy, Finbarr & Cummins, Mark, 2015. "An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.
    14. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
    15. Lübbers, Johannes & Posch, Peter N., 2016. "Commodities' common factor: An empirical assessment of the markets' drivers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 28-40.

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