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No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures

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  • Liu, Peng (Peter)
  • Tang, Ke

Abstract

One distinguishable feature of storable commodities is that they relate to two markets: cash market and storage market. This paper proves that, if no arbitrage exists in the storage-cash dual markets, the commodity convenience yield has to be non-negative. However, classical reduced-form models for futures term structures could allow serious arbitrages due to the high volatility of the convenience yield. To avoid negative convenience yield, this paper proposes a semi-affine arbitrage-free model, which prices futures analytically and fits futures term structures reasonably well. Importantly, our model prices commodity-related contingent claims (such as calendar spread options) quite differently with classical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:7:p:1675-1687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Shocks propagation across the futures term structure : evidence from crude oil prices," Post-Print hal-01781765, HAL.
    2. Dempster, M.A.H. & Tang, Ke, 2011. "Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 639-652, March.
    3. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:496-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2015. "Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.

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