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Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach

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  • Geman, Hélyette
  • Ohana, Steve

Abstract

We address the problem of managing a storable commodity portfolio, that includes physical assets and positions in spot and forward markets. The vast amount of capital involved in the acquisition of a power plant or storage facility implies that the financing period stretches over a period of several quarters or years. Hence, an intertemporally consistent way of optimizing the portfolio over the planning horizon is required. We demonstrate the temporal inconsistency of static risk objectives based on final wealth and advocate the validity in our setting of a new class of recursive risk measures introduced by Epstein and Zin [Epstein, G., Zin, S., 1989. Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework. Econometrica, 57 (4) 937-969] and Wang [Wang, T., 2000. A class of dynamic risk measures University of British Columbia]. These risk measures provide important insights on the trade-offs between date-specific risks (i.e., losses occurring at a point in time) and time-duration risks represented by the pair (return, risk) over a planning horizon; in a number of situations, they dramatically improve the efficiency of static risk objectives, as exhibited in numerical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2008. "Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1991-2005, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:1991-2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    2. Frittelli, Marco & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2002. "Putting order in risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1473-1486, July.
    3. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    4. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    5. James E. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating Income Streams: A Decision Analysis Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1690-1708, December.
    6. Carr, Peter & Geman, Helyette & Madan, Dilip B., 2001. "Pricing and hedging in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 131-167, October.
    7. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    8. Weber, Stefan, 2003. "Distribution-Invariant Dynamic Risk Measures," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,53, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Paul R. Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2005. "Multi-Period VaR-Constrained Portfolio Optimization with Applications to the Electric Power Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-26.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2011. "Portfolio risk management and carbon emissions valuation in electric power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 219-236, December.
    2. Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
    3. Günter Bamberg & Michael Krapp, 2016. "Is time consistency compatible with risk aversion?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 195-211, March.
    4. Zhiping Chen & Jia Liu & Gang Li & Zhe Yan, 2016. "Composite time-consistent multi-period risk measure and its application in optimal portfolio selection," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 515-540, October.
    5. Hans Ulrich Buhl & Björn Steven Häckel & Florian Probst & Josef Schosser, 2016. "On the Ex Ante Valuation of IT Service Investments," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 415-432, December.

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